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UWM Holdings Corporation (UWMC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Mortgage Finance

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.95, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or...Ginnie Mae (90.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 10.3): -1.5.

UWM Holdings is the indirect parent of United Wholesale Mortgage, the largest US residential mortgage lender and largest purchase lender by closed loan volume, originating exclusively through independent broker businesses. Revenue comes from origination fees and mortgage... Read more

$2.95+66.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 4 Mortgage Finance
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-23.00%
IncomeYield13.70%Payout133.33%at-risk
Stop $2.75Target $4.87(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$5.59+89.6%8 analysts
$4.87our TP
$2.95price
$5.59mean
$10

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.95, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or...Ginnie Mae (90.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 10.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — UWM Holdings Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or...Ginnie Mae (90.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 10.3): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7
P/E (Fwd)5.7
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn1.8%
ROE40.9%
Rev Growth24.4%
Beta1.83
Dividend13.70%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV91%elevated
Max Pain$6+86.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyFannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or...Ginnie Mae90%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 90% of loans originated by UWM were sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or were transferred to Ginnie Mae pools in the secondary market'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.9
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.83Resistance $4.00

Price Targets

$3
$5
A.Upside+65.1%
A.R:R4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UWMC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.95, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or...Ginnie Mae (90.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 10.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $4.87 (+65.1%), stop $2.75 (−7.3%), A.R:R 4.8:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UWMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.87 (+66.8% upside). Target $4.87 (+65.1%), stop $2.75 (−7.3%), A.R:R 4.8:1. Stop-loss: $2.75.

What are the risks of investing in UWMC?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or...Ginnie Mae (90.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 10.3): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is UWMC overvalued or undervalued?

UWM Holdings Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about UWMC?

16 analysts cover UWMC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $6.

What does UWM Holdings Corporation do?UWM Holdings is the indirect parent of United Wholesale Mortgage, the largest US residential mortgage lender and...

UWM Holdings is the indirect parent of United Wholesale Mortgage, the largest US residential mortgage lender and largest purchase lender by closed loan volume, originating exclusively through independent broker businesses. Revenue comes from origination fees and mortgage servicing rights (MSRs); approximately 90% of 2025 loans were sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac or transferred to Ginnie Mae pools.

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