UWM Holdings Corporation (UWMC) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Mortgage Finance
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae (90.0%).
UWM Holdings is the largest overall residential mortgage lender in the U.S. by closed loan volume, originating exclusively through the wholesale channel via 13,000+ independent broker businesses. Revenue from loan origination fees and mortgage servicing rights; approximately 90%... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae (90.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerFannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae90%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 90% of loans originated by UWM were sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or were transferred to Ginnie Mae pools in the secondary market'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae (90.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $3.33. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $5.41 (+53.5% upside). Prior stop was $3.33. Stop-loss: $3.33.
Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae (90.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 9.1): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
UWM Holdings Corporation trades at a P/E of 28.9 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover UWMC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $6.
What does UWM Holdings Corporation do?UWM Holdings is the largest overall residential mortgage lender in the U.S. by closed loan volume, originating...
UWM Holdings is the largest overall residential mortgage lender in the U.S. by closed loan volume, originating exclusively through the wholesale channel via 13,000+ independent broker businesses. Revenue from loan origination fees and mortgage servicing rights; approximately 90% of loans sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or transferred to Ginnie Mae pools.