Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $81.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Arizona, California, and Nevada.
Western Alliance Bancorporation is a Phoenix-based bank holding company with $92.7B total assets, operating through Western Alliance Bank with commercial, consumer, and mortgage banking (AmeriHome) capabilities across 20+ states. Revenue is primarily net interest income, with... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $81.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Arizona, California, and Nevada. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicArizona, California, and Nevada10-K Item 1A: 'Our commercial and industrial, CRE, and construction and land development loans, are also largely concentrated in select markets in Arizona, California, and Nevada'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-06Item 2.06MEDIUMWestern Alliance Bank disclosed on March 2, 2026 that counterparty to a $126.4M commercial loan facility defaulted on a $42.125M required payment. Non-cash impairment of $126.4M to be recognized in Q1 2026. Bank pursuing all legal rights and remedies.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $81.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Arizona, California, and Nevada. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $76.44. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $80.36 (-0.8% upside). Prior stop was $76.44. Stop-loss: $76.44.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Arizona, California, and Nevada; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Western Alliance Bancorporation trades at a P/E of 9.3 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover WAL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $89.
What does Western Alliance Bancorporation do?Western Alliance Bancorporation is a Phoenix-based bank holding company with $92.7B total assets, operating through...
Western Alliance Bancorporation is a Phoenix-based bank holding company with $92.7B total assets, operating through Western Alliance Bank with commercial, consumer, and mortgage banking (AmeriHome) capabilities across 20+ states. Revenue is primarily net interest income, with lending concentrated in Arizona, California, and Nevada commercial and real estate loans.