Value
8.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
WAL · Why this verdict
Why Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Western Alliance carries 3 medium-severity concentration risks identified in its annual report risk disclosures, representing a documented diversification concern that could amplify losses during a regional credit cycle downturn. Risk breakdown | No disclosed credit concentration losses exceeding 1% of total assets are reported over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterMedium-severity concentration flags are common disclosures at growth-oriented regional banks and do not necessarily predict realized losses; they may simply reflect sector specialization. | ||
Western Alliance's forward P/E of 7.1x and PEG of 0.21 place it among the most attractively priced stocks relative to growth in its regional bank peer group, with the peer value rank score reflecting this discount to consensus. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remains below 10x and price appreciates toward the analyst consensus target of approximately $90 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow P/E ratios at regional banks with above-average beta can reflect the market pricing in elevated credit or concentration risks not fully visible in trailing earnings; quality score of 4.9 sits just above minimum thresholds. | ||
Western Alliance missed EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent quarter producing a miss of -8.6% versus a prior beat of +8.9%, signaling inconsistent earnings delivery that is at odds with the low valuation thesis. Earnings | Earnings misses stop and the company meets or beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two prior quarters were solid beats with meaningful positive surprises; the recent miss could reflect a transitory charge or timing issue rather than a durable deterioration. | ||
Price is above the 200-day moving average with rising on-balance-volume and a bullish MACD, following a recovering death cross pattern, and the momentum score of 7.5 places Western Alliance in the upper tier of momentum strength. Momentum breakdown | Price stays above the 200-day moving average for at least 90 days and momentum score remains above 6.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross warning flag is still active and the 200-day moving average slope is described as flat, meaning the recovery momentum may stall if earnings disappoint again. | ||
Western Alliance carries 3 medium-severity concentration risks identified in its annual report risk disclosures, representing a documented diversification concern that could amplify losses during a regional credit cycle downturn.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- No disclosed credit concentration losses exceeding 1% of total assets are reported over the next 4 quarters.
CounterMedium-severity concentration flags are common disclosures at growth-oriented regional banks and do not necessarily predict realized losses; they may simply reflect sector specialization.
Western Alliance's forward P/E of 7.1x and PEG of 0.21 place it among the most attractively priced stocks relative to growth in its regional bank peer group, with the peer value rank score reflecting this discount to consensus.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 10x and price appreciates toward the analyst consensus target of approximately $90 within 12 months.
CounterLow P/E ratios at regional banks with above-average beta can reflect the market pricing in elevated credit or concentration risks not fully visible in trailing earnings; quality score of 4.9 sits just above minimum thresholds.
Western Alliance missed EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent quarter producing a miss of -8.6% versus a prior beat of +8.9%, signaling inconsistent earnings delivery that is at odds with the low valuation thesis.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings misses stop and the company meets or beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe two prior quarters were solid beats with meaningful positive surprises; the recent miss could reflect a transitory charge or timing issue rather than a durable deterioration.
Price is above the 200-day moving average with rising on-balance-volume and a bullish MACD, following a recovering death cross pattern, and the momentum score of 7.5 places Western Alliance in the upper tier of momentum strength.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays above the 200-day moving average for at least 90 days and momentum score remains above 6.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA death cross warning flag is still active and the 200-day moving average slope is described as flat, meaning the recovery momentum may stall if earnings disappoint again.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Western Alliance trades at a compelling forward P/E of 7.1x with a PEG of 0.21 and strong momentum, offering a 36% margin of safety, but consecutive recent earnings misses and a news-driven sentiment downgrade create near-term caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 8.6 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,777,203 (0.042% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| beta | 5.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
- ▸Dividend: 206.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (3)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.0>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.16
Upside
-1.0%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.33>1.3
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.3; weakest: Insider at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Momentum at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Catalyst at 4.4, and Quality at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x or analyst price targets decline below $70, reducing the margin of safety below 15%.
- P2Earnings Inconsistency Recent Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming a persistent miss trend.
- P3Strong Momentum Trend Continuation
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below it for more than 45 consecutive days.
- P4Concentration Risk 3 Medium
Trip ifCredit losses or loan charge-offs exceed 1% of total assets in any single quarter, indicating concentration risk has materialized.