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Vericel Corporation (VCEL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel; Negative momentum.

Vericel Corporation markets three FDA-approved therapies in the US: MACI (knee cartilage repair), Epicel (severe burn skin replacement), and NexoBrid (eschar removal for burn patients), targeting orthopedic surgeons and burn care specialists. Revenue comes from specialty... Read more

$34.49+39.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#28 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.38%
Stop $32.08Target $48.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$55.43+60.7%7 analysts
$48.22our TP
$34.49price
$55.43mean
$70

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Vericel Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)81.1
P/E (Fwd)40.9
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA62.0
Profit Mgn7.3%
ROE6.6%
Rev Growth30.1%
Beta1.16
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierMatricel
    10-K Item 1: 'The Matricel Supply Agreement provides that Matricel will supply the ACI-Maix membranes exclusively to us during the term of the agreement'
  • MEDIUMSupplierMediWound
    10-K Item 1A: 'The commercial success of NexoBrid in the U.S. is dependent, in part, on MediWound’s ability to timely manufacture and supply sufficient quantities of NexoBrid to meet customer demand'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
1.4
Volume
2.3
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
4.7
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.86Resistance $40.85

Price Targets

$32
$48
A.Upside+39.8%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VCEL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $48.22 (+39.8%), stop $32.08 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VCEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.22 (+39.8% upside). Target $48.22 (+39.8%), stop $32.08 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $32.08.

What are the risks of investing in VCEL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is VCEL overvalued or undervalued?

Vericel Corporation trades at a P/E of 81.1 (forward 40.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VCEL?

14 analysts cover VCEL with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $55.

What does Vericel Corporation do?Vericel Corporation markets three FDA-approved therapies in the US: MACI (knee cartilage repair), Epicel (severe burn...

Vericel Corporation markets three FDA-approved therapies in the US: MACI (knee cartilage repair), Epicel (severe burn skin replacement), and NexoBrid (eschar removal for burn patients), targeting orthopedic surgeons and burn care specialists. Revenue comes from specialty pharmacy sales (MACI) and hospital sales (Epicel/NexoBrid); net income was $16.5M in 2025. Matricel GmbH is the sole collagen membrane supplier for MACI manufacturing.

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