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Vericel Corporation (VCEL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.71 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel GmbH; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Vericel Corporation markets two FDA-approved autologous cell therapies (MACI for knee cartilage repair, Epicel for severe burns) and one specialty biologic (NexoBrid for eschar removal) in the U.S. Revenue comes from direct sales to hospitals and specialty pharmacy distributors... Read more

$33.71+40.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#66 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $31.39Target $47.48(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$54.57+61.9%7 analysts
$47.48our TP
$33.71price
$54.57mean
$64

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.71 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel GmbH; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 41%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel GmbH
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)104.5
P/E (Fwd)41.5
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA73.3
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE5.1%
Rev Growth23.3%
Beta1.21
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C228.00bearish
IV100%elevated
Max Pain$18-48.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierMatricel GmbH
    10-K Item 1A: 'Failure of third parties, including, for example, Matricel GmbH ("Matricel"), to manufacture or supply certain components ... would impair our cell product development and commercialization'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.28Resistance $37.61

Price Targets

$31
$47
A.Upside+40.8%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VCEL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.71 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel GmbH; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $31.39. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VCEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.48 (+40.7% upside). Prior stop was $31.39. Stop-loss: $31.39.

What are the risks of investing in VCEL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Matricel GmbH; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is VCEL overvalued or undervalued?

Vericel Corporation trades at a P/E of 104.5 (forward 41.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VCEL?

14 analysts cover VCEL with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $55.

What does Vericel Corporation do?Vericel Corporation markets two FDA-approved autologous cell therapies (MACI for knee cartilage repair, Epicel for...

Vericel Corporation markets two FDA-approved autologous cell therapies (MACI for knee cartilage repair, Epicel for severe burns) and one specialty biologic (NexoBrid for eschar removal) in the U.S. Revenue comes from direct sales to hospitals and specialty pharmacy distributors serving sports medicine and burn care markets.

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