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UMCUnited Microelectronics CorporaSell5.9·$20.92
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

United Microelectronics Corporation has beaten or met earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 28%, carries strong margins of 21% and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, but trades at essentially zero upside to resistance and negative asymmetry, leaving no room for a favorable entry at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Margins Piotroski Quality→Stable
  • Earnings Beats With Large Surprises↓Deteriorating
  • Price At Resistance Zero Upside↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

United Microelectronics Corpora (UMC) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.92 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

United Microelectronics Corporation operates as a semiconductor wafer foundry in Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It manufactures and sells integrated circuits. The company offers circuit design; mask tooling; wafer... Read more

$20.92-22.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#28 of 53 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield68.74%
IncomeYield1.79%(5y avg 4.76%)Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $19.64Target $25.83(resistance)A.R:R -2.4:1
Analyst target$19.12-8.6%4 analysts
$25.83our TP
$20.92price
$19.12mean
$11
$34

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.92 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.2
P/E (Fwd)24.4
Mkt Cap$53.7B
EV/EBITDA-0.3
Profit Mgn33.3%
ROE21.3%
Rev Growth17.0%
Beta1.71
Dividend1.79%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C26.26bearish
IV107%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.5
Rsi
8.3
Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -2.4=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.43%=MODERATEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.25Resistance $26.36

Price Targets

$20
$26
A.Upside-22.3%
A.R:R-2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.3% upside)
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.92 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $19.64. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.83 (-22.3% upside). Prior stop was $19.64. Stop-loss: $19.64.

What are the risks of investing in UMC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is UMC overvalued or undervalued?

United Microelectronics Corpora trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 24.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UMC?

33 analysts cover UMC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $19.

What does United Microelectronics Corpora do?United Microelectronics Corporation operates as a semiconductor wafer foundry in Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Japan,...

United Microelectronics Corporation operates as a semiconductor wafer foundry in Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It manufactures and sells integrated circuits. The company offers circuit design; mask tooling; wafer fabrication; and assembly and testing services for communication devices, consumer electronics, computer, and other applications. It also provides venture capital and marketing support; consulting and planning; energy technical; solar engineering integrated design; research and development services; and insurance services. United Microelectronics Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

Related stocks: SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corpo) · CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) · NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.) · CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.)
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