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Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. At $114.06, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.4%.

Tradeweb operates electronic trading platforms for institutional, wholesale, retail, and corporate clients across rates, credit, equities, and money markets globally, serving 3,000+ clients in 85+ countries. Revenue is earned through transaction fees and subscription-based... Read more

$114.06+3.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#13 of 40 Capital Markets
Stop $106.34Target $117.95(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$135.57+18.9%14 analysts
$117.95our TP
$114.06price
$135.57mean
$197

Sell if holding. At $114.06, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.4%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.4%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.2
P/E (Fwd)25.8
Mkt Cap$25.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn40.3%
ROE
Rev Growth21.2%
Beta
Dividend0.47%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$95-16.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerdealer clients
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on our dealer clients to support our marketplaces by transacting with our other institutional, wholesale and retail clients.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $107.05Resistance $127.69

Price Targets

$106
$118
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $114.06, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.4%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $106.34. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $117.95 (+3.4% upside). Prior stop was $106.34. Stop-loss: $106.34.

What are the risks of investing in TW?

Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is TW overvalued or undervalued?

Tradeweb Markets Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.2 (forward 25.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TW?

22 analysts cover TW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $136.

What does Tradeweb Markets Inc. do?Tradeweb operates electronic trading platforms for institutional, wholesale, retail, and corporate clients across...

Tradeweb operates electronic trading platforms for institutional, wholesale, retail, and corporate clients across rates, credit, equities, and money markets globally, serving 3,000+ clients in 85+ countries. Revenue is earned through transaction fees and subscription-based market data and analytics.

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