Value
4.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.04
TW · Why this verdict
Why Tradeweb Markets (TW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A put/call ratio of 7.42 is the highest in the entire assigned batch by a wide margin, indicating that for every bullish call option, there are more than 7 bearish puts, which reflects either extreme institutional hedging or concentrated bearish speculation that creates risk of forced unwind. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio falls below 3.0 within the next 3 months as hedging unwinds after a positive earnings catalyst. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high put/call ratios in high-quality financial services companies often reflect defensive hedging by long-only holders rather than outright bearish speculation, making it a less reliable directional signal. | ||
Tradeweb delivers 40% net margins with a quality score of 8.2 out of 10, best-in-class margins among capital markets peers, a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, and strong ROA of 8.4%, reflecting a capital-light marketplace model with high operating leverage. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 35% over the next 12 months, confirming the structural margin advantage is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital markets revenue is highly correlated with trading volumes and interest rate volatility; a prolonged low-volatility environment or rate plateau could compress margins toward the peer average. | ||
Four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 2.7% and 21% year-over-year revenue growth demonstrate consistent execution in growing market share across fixed income electronic trading, supported by structural tailwinds toward institutional e-trading. Earnings | Revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year in the next reported annual period and the beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average beat has been modest at 2.7%, suggesting analysts are already pricing in strong growth and leaving little room for upside surprise relative to expectations. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at negative 3.8% over 30 days, but was exempt from the death cross hard block due to quality and momentum scores meeting an exception threshold, and the MACD is already improving. Gates warning | The stock recovers above its 200-day moving average within the next 3 months, converting the recovery setup into a confirmed uptrend. | →Stable |
| CounterA 3.8% declining slope is meaningful even with the quality exemption; if interest rates and trading volumes normalize lower, the stock could continue drifting below trend for longer. | ||
A put/call ratio of 7.42 is the highest in the entire assigned batch by a wide margin, indicating that for every bullish call option, there are more than 7 bearish puts, which reflects either extreme institutional hedging or concentrated bearish speculation that creates risk of forced unwind.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls below 3.0 within the next 3 months as hedging unwinds after a positive earnings catalyst.
CounterExtremely high put/call ratios in high-quality financial services companies often reflect defensive hedging by long-only holders rather than outright bearish speculation, making it a less reliable directional signal.
Tradeweb delivers 40% net margins with a quality score of 8.2 out of 10, best-in-class margins among capital markets peers, a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, and strong ROA of 8.4%, reflecting a capital-light marketplace model with high operating leverage.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 35% over the next 12 months, confirming the structural margin advantage is durable.
CounterCapital markets revenue is highly correlated with trading volumes and interest rate volatility; a prolonged low-volatility environment or rate plateau could compress margins toward the peer average.
Four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 2.7% and 21% year-over-year revenue growth demonstrate consistent execution in growing market share across fixed income electronic trading, supported by structural tailwinds toward institutional e-trading.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year in the next reported annual period and the beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe average beat has been modest at 2.7%, suggesting analysts are already pricing in strong growth and leaving little room for upside surprise relative to expectations.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at negative 3.8% over 30 days, but was exempt from the death cross hard block due to quality and momentum scores meeting an exception threshold, and the MACD is already improving.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The stock recovers above its 200-day moving average within the next 3 months, converting the recovery setup into a confirmed uptrend.
CounterA 3.8% declining slope is meaningful even with the quality exemption; if interest rates and trading volumes normalize lower, the stock could continue drifting below trend for longer.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tradeweb Markets combines best-in-class 40% net margins, a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, and 21% revenue growth with a quality score of 8.2 that is among the highest in the batch, but a put/call ratio of 7.42 and a below-trend price signal caution on near-term timing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 8.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.8 |
| EPS growth | 9.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,769,774 (0.021% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 3.1 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 54.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.2>=7.5+momentum=5.9>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
1.26
Upside
+14.0%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Quality at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.6, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins Quality
Trip ifNet margins fall below 30% for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year in any reported period over the next 12 months.
- P3Extreme Put Call Ratio
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 10.0, indicating even more extreme bearish positioning than the current 7.42.
- P4Below Trend Recovery Setup
Trip ifStock price drops below $90, more than 11% below the current $101.73, on failure to recover the 200-day moving average.