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Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $33.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico.

Trinity Industries is the leading North American provider of railcar products and services under the TrinityRail brand, operating Railcar Leasing and Services Group (101,485 railcars, 97.1% utilized) and Rail Products Group (freight/tank railcar manufacturer). Revenue is... Read more

$33.79+6.8% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#6 of 8 Railroads
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-16.77%
IncomeYield3.62%(5y avg 3.67%)Payout38.17%sustainable
Stop $31.87Target $36.61(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$35.50+5.1%2 analysts
$36.61our TP
$33.79price
$35.50mean
$37

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $33.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Trinity Industries, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.8
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn12.4%
ROE23.1%
Rev Growth-16.0%
Beta1.38
Dividend3.62%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C10.50bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$27-20.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicMexico
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our railcars are manufactured in Mexico.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    EVP Leasing and Services Gregory B. Mitchell announced retirement transition effective October 15, 2026; stepped down from role effective February 16, 2026. No successor for EVP Leasing named in the filing. Decision not due to any disagreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -16.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
4.3
Declining revenue: -16%
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.94Resistance $37.36

Price Targets

$32
$37
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.9% upside)
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $33.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $31.87. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the TRN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.61 (+6.8% upside). Prior stop was $31.87. Stop-loss: $31.87.

What are the risks of investing in TRN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Is TRN overvalued or undervalued?

Trinity Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TRN?

9 analysts cover TRN with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Trinity Industries, Inc. do?Trinity Industries is the leading North American provider of railcar products and services under the TrinityRail brand,...

Trinity Industries is the leading North American provider of railcar products and services under the TrinityRail brand, operating Railcar Leasing and Services Group (101,485 railcars, 97.1% utilized) and Rail Products Group (freight/tank railcar manufacturer). Revenue is generated from full-service railcar leases (fixed monthly rentals, 1–10 year terms), railcar sales, parts, and maintenance services. The majority of railcar manufacturing takes place in Mexico.

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