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Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The (GBX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.50: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.80; Below-average business quality.

Greenbrier manufactures freight railcars and provides wheel services, maintenance, and leasing across North America, Europe, and Brazil through its Manufacturing and Leasing & Fleet Management segments. It sells and leases to railroads, leasing companies, and industrial... Read more

$48.50+8.3% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#8 of 8 Railroads
Stop $45.56Target $52.52(resistance)A.R:R -3.2:1
Analyst target$44.67-7.9%3 analysts
$52.52our TP
$48.50price
$44.67mean
$39
$53

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.50: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-21.7% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE9.3%
Rev Growth-22.9%
Beta1.61
Dividend2.85%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.80bearish
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 customers26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from two customers represented approximately 26% of Consolidated Revenue'
  • LOWSuppliertop supplier14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The top supplier accounted for approximately 14% of total inventory purchases in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -22.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -23%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
8.1

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.8
Roa
2.1
Net Margin
2.6
Roe
3.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
6.6
Current Ratio
9.3
No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -3.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $45.23Resistance $53.59

Price Targets

$46
$53
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R-3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-01 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GBX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.50: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $45.56. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GBX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.52 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $45.56. Stop-loss: $45.56.

What are the risks of investing in GBX?

Target reached (-21.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is GBX overvalued or undervalued?

Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GBX?

10 analysts cover GBX with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The do?Greenbrier manufactures freight railcars and provides wheel services, maintenance, and leasing across North America,...

Greenbrier manufactures freight railcars and provides wheel services, maintenance, and leasing across North America, Europe, and Brazil through its Manufacturing and Leasing & Fleet Management segments. It sells and leases to railroads, leasing companies, and industrial customers.

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