Greenbrier Companies carries a revenue base contracting 23% and quality below the minimum acceptable threshold, with the stock trading at its resistance ceiling — an upcoming earnings report is the only near-term catalyst, but it is insufficient to overcome the fundamental and valuation setup.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Quality Deterioration→Stable
- Earnings Beat History Catalyst↓Deteriorating
- Negative Price Geometry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Oct 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The (GBX) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Railroads
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.05: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Greenbrier designs, builds and markets freight railcars in North America, Europe and Brazil, and provides wheel services, component parts, maintenance, leasing and fleet management in North America. Revenue comes from railcar sales to railroads, lessors and shippers, lease... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.05: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The
About Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The
Greenbrier Companies carried a manufacturing backlog of 16,600 railcar units valued at $2.2 billion as of August 31, 2025, down from 26,700 units ($3.4 billion) a year earlier, reflecting a softer freight demand environment. The company operates two reportable segments—Manufacturing and Leasing & Fleet Management—across North America, Europe, and Brazil, and employs approximately 11,000 people, with about 5,400 in union-represented positions primarily in Mexico and Europe.
Greenbrier generates revenue by designing and building freight railcars—covered hoppers, tank cars, intermodal double-stack cars, gondolas, boxcars, and automotive racks—as well as through wheel services, maintenance, component parts, and sustainable conversions. In fiscal year 2025, two customers accounted for approximately 26% of Consolidated Revenue, representing 28% of Manufacturing Revenue. Steel and specialty components represent more than half of direct manufacturing cost per railcar; the top ten suppliers accounted for 36% of all inventory purchases in 2025, with the single largest supplier at 14%. Specialized components such as castings, bolsters, trucks, wheels, and axles are currently only available from a limited number of suppliers. The Leasing & Fleet Management segment owns roughly 17,000 railcars, 98.2% of which were on lease with an average remaining term of 4.0 years.
Show full overview
Union membership covers approximately 5,400 of Greenbrier's 11,000 employees, with collective bargaining agreements primarily in Mexico and Europe. The 10-K identifies potential work stoppages or strikes as operational risks that could disrupt production and increase costs. The current U.S. tariff environment adds cost uncertainty: steel and all materials represent more than half of direct per-railcar manufacturing cost, and not all of the company's European contracts include price-escalation clauses that allow pass-through, subject to negotiations with customers.
See also: Industrials · Railroads
From Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The's most recent 10-K filing, extracted November 1, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 26, 2026 MEDIUM Item 1.01: On Oct 24, 2026 the company signed a Cooperation Agreement with Atlas Holdings on board composition: Emanuel R. Pearlman to be appointed director and Audit Committee member effective Oct 27, 2026 and nominated for the 2027 annual meeting; replacement mechanics and a resignation letter tied to Atlas
Latest news
- NEWS B of A Securities Maintains Underperform Rating on The Greenbrier Companies — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS B of A Securities Maintains Underperform on Greenbrier Companies, Lowers Price Target to $38 — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Reports Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Greenbrier Companies Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Oct 26, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T12:04:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerone customer12%10-K Item 1: 'In 2026, revenue from one customer accounted for approximately 12% of Consolidated Revenue'
- LOWSuppliertop supplier10-K Item 1: 'The top supplier accounted for 14% of total inventory purchases in 2026.'
- MEDIUMGeographicworkforce in Mexico10-K Item 1: 'We depend on a highly skilled workforce of approximately 10,000 employees of which approximately half reside in Mexico.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-26Item 1.01MEDIUMOn Oct 24, 2026 the company signed a Cooperation Agreement with Atlas Holdings on board composition: Emanuel R. Pearlman to be appointed director and Audit Committee member effective Oct 27, 2026 and nominated for the 2027 annual meeting; replacement mechanics and a resignation letter tied to Atlas holdings included.SEC filing →
- 2026-10-26Item 5.02LOWEmanuel R. Pearlman appointed to the board (class expiring at the 2027 annual meeting) and Audit Committee effective Oct 27, 2026 under the Atlas Cooperation Agreement.SEC filing →
- 2026-08-31Item 5.02MEDIUMCEO and President Lorie Tekorius will retire effective Jan 6, 2027 and provide transition services; the board appointed Brian J. Comstock, 64, currently EVP & President, The Americas, as successor effective the same date. Clean handoff.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.05: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $40.97. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $35.70 reached (−19.0% from $44.05); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $40.97. Stop-loss: $40.97.
Target reached (-19.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.03% of cap), Negative free cash flow.
Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts rate GBX, with a consensus score of 2.2/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $42.
What does Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The do?Greenbrier designs, builds and markets freight railcars in North America, Europe and Brazil, and provides wheel...
Greenbrier designs, builds and markets freight railcars in North America, Europe and Brazil, and provides wheel services, component parts, maintenance, leasing and fleet management in North America. Revenue comes from railcar sales to railroads, lessors and shippers, lease income from about 20,900 owned railcars, and services; new railcar backlog was 14,000 units worth an estimated $2.1 billion at August 31, 2026.