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Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The (GBX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.59: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.52; Below-average business quality.

Greenbrier is a leading international railcar manufacturer and services provider operating in North America, Europe, and Brazil (via 60%-owned Greenbrier-Maxion). Revenue comes from railcar sales, lease origination, wheel services, maintenance, and fleet management; two... Read more

$47.59+4.8% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#8 of 8 Railroads
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield9.12%
IncomeYield2.83%(5y avg 2.69%)Payout27.29%sustainable
Stop $45.59Target $50.27(resistance)A.R:R -3.4:1
Analyst target$44.67-6.1%3 analysts
$50.27our TP
$47.59price
$44.67mean
$39
$52

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.59: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.52; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-20.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE9.3%
Rev Growth-22.9%
Beta1.46
Dividend2.83%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.52bearish
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop two customers
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, revenue from two customers accounted for approximately 26% of Consolidated Revenue which represented 28% of Manufacturing Revenue and 2% of Leasing & Fleet Management Revenue.'
  • LOWSuppliertop supplier14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The top supplier accounted for approximately 14% of total inventory purchases in 2025. No other suppliers accounted for more than 10% of total inventory purchases.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -22.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -23%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.9
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.1
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.8
Roa
2.1
Net Margin
2.6
Roe
3.1
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Fcf Quality
6.6
Current Ratio
9.3
No competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
8.8
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -3.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.00Resistance $51.30

Price Targets

$46
$50
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R-3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-01 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GBX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.59: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.52; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $45.59. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GBX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.27 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $45.59. Stop-loss: $45.59.

What are the risks of investing in GBX?

Target reached (-20.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is GBX overvalued or undervalued?

Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GBX?

10 analysts cover GBX with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The do?Greenbrier is a leading international railcar manufacturer and services provider operating in North America, Europe,...

Greenbrier is a leading international railcar manufacturer and services provider operating in North America, Europe, and Brazil (via 60%-owned Greenbrier-Maxion). Revenue comes from railcar sales, lease origination, wheel services, maintenance, and fleet management; two customers accounted for ~26% of 2025 consolidated revenue.

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