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Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Confectioners

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $41.61 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%).

Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures and sells confectionery products (Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pops, Dots, Junior Mints, BLOW-POP, Andes, and others) exclusively in the US, Canada, and Mexico; this is its only business segment. Products are sold to supermarkets, mass... Read more

$41.61+2.3% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#3 of 3 Confectioners
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.04%
IncomeYield0.87%(5y avg 1.02%)Payout26.47%sustainable
Stop $39.05Target $42.56(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $41.61 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%). Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.3
P/E (Fwd)-21.3
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA21.9
Profit Mgn13.5%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta0.45
Dividend0.87%
Rating analysts

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$60+44.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWal-Mart22%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our net product sales from Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. ("Wal-Mart") aggregated approximately 22.0%...of net product sales during the years ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerMcLane20%
    10-K Item 1: 'Net product sales revenues from McLane...were 19.7% in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerDollar Tree13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our net sales from Dollar Tree, Inc. ("Dollar Tree"...aggregated approximately 13.1%...of net product sales during the years ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.6
Revenue Growth
3.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
5.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.4
Volume
3.8
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
1.8
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 87.0%

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
4.2
Ps
7.4
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.30Resistance $43.43

Price Targets

$39
$43
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $41.61 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%). Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $39.05. Score 4.1/10, high confidence.

What is the TR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.56 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $39.05. Stop-loss: $39.05.

What are the risks of investing in TR?

Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Is TR overvalued or undervalued?

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.3 (forward -21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

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What does Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. do?Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures and sells confectionery products (Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pops, Dots, Junior Mints,...

Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures and sells confectionery products (Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pops, Dots, Junior Mints, BLOW-POP, Andes, and others) exclusively in the US, Canada, and Mexico; this is its only business segment. Products are sold to supermarkets, mass merchandisers, drug chains, dollar stores, club stores, and vending operators. Walmart, McLane, and Dollar Tree collectively represented approximately 36% of 2025 net product sales.

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