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TRTootsie Roll Industries, Inc.Sell4.4·$37.80-2.78%
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Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Confectioners

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $37.80: Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%).

Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures and sells confectionery products (Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pops, Dots, Junior Mints, BLOW-POP, Andes, and others) exclusively in the US, Canada, and Mexico; this is its only business segment. Products are sold to supermarkets, mass... Read more

$37.80+9.1% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#3 of 3 Confectioners
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.18%
IncomeYield0.93%(5y avg 1.02%)Payout26.47%sustainable
Stop $35.81Target $41.14(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $37.80: Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.

About Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.

Tootsie Roll Industries has manufactured confectionery products for over 125 years under more than 20 registered trademarks — including Tootsie Roll, Junior Mints, Tootsie Pops, Dots, and Dubble Bubble — sold throughout the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Wal-Mart represented approximately 22% of net product sales in 2025, McLane 19.7%, and Dollar Tree 13.1%, with the three together accounting for approximately 36% of net product sales.

Products reach consumers through food and grocery brokers or direct sales to wholesale candy distributors, supermarkets, variety stores, dollar stores, drug chains, discount chains, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, vending operators, and e-commerce marketplaces. Sales are highly seasonal, with third-quarter volume highest due to pre-Halloween demand — the most significant season — followed by Christmas, Valentine's Day, and Easter. The company hedges sugar and key ingredient costs using commodity futures contracts, typically entered before the start of each calendar year, to manage price volatility in a category where higher input costs are difficult to pass to customers quickly. The majority of Tootsie Roll's products are manufactured in a single production facility on specialized equipment, which the 10-K acknowledges would be difficult to relocate in the event of a fire, earthquake, or other disaster. Labor contracts at the Chicago plant expire September 2027 and at the Canadian plant expire January 2029, presenting near-term renegotiation windows. Production facilities in Canada also export the majority of their output to the United States.

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The combined 36% revenue share from McLane, Wal-Mart, and Dollar Tree represents the primary channel concentration risk. Item 1A explicitly warns that the loss of any of these customers, or a material decrease in purchases by one or more large customers, could result in decreased sales and adversely impact the company's results of operations and financial condition. McLane additionally functions as a logistics conduit routing a portion of Wal-Mart and Dollar Tree deliveries, meaning disruption to McLane alone could affect revenues attributed to multiple end-retail chains simultaneously.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Confectioners

From Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.2
P/E (Fwd)-19.9
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA20.4
Profit Mgn13.5%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta0.40
Dividend0.93%
Rating analysts

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV102%elevated
Max Pain$25-33.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWal-Mart22%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our net product sales from Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. ("Wal-Mart") aggregated approximately 22.0%...of net product sales during the years ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerMcLane20%
    10-K Item 1: 'Net product sales revenues from McLane...were 19.7% in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerDollar Tree13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our net sales from Dollar Tree, Inc. ("Dollar Tree"...aggregated approximately 13.1%...of net product sales during the years ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.6
Revenue Growth
3.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
1.8
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 93.0%
GatesMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.92Resistance $41.98

Price Targets

$36
$41
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts0
Consensus
Avg Target

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $37.80: Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.81. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the TR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.14 (+9.1% upside). Prior stop was $35.81. Stop-loss: $35.81.

What are the risks of investing in TR?

Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart (22.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: McLane (19.7%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is TR overvalued or undervalued?

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.2 (forward -19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

0
What does Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. do?Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures and sells confectionery products (Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pops, Dots, Junior Mints,...

Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures and sells confectionery products (Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pops, Dots, Junior Mints, BLOW-POP, Andes, and others) exclusively in the US, Canada, and Mexico; this is its only business segment. Products are sold to supermarkets, mass merchandisers, drug chains, dollar stores, club stores, and vending operators. Walmart, McLane, and Dollar Tree collectively represented approximately 36% of 2025 net product sales.

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