Tootsie Roll Industries is a low-volatility consumer defensive confectioner with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and a strong technical setup at Bollinger Band support, but has a history of earnings misses and its most recent available quarterly data dates to 2014-2015, raising questions about the currency of the earnings track record used in analysis.
Thesis pillars
- Technical Support Zone With Momentum↓Deteriorating
- Solid Financial Health Metrics→Stable
- Earnings Miss Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Confectioners
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $38.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).
Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures confectionery products under more than 20 registered trademarks — including Tootsie Roll, Junior Mints, Tootsie Pops, and Dots — sold across the US, Canada, and Mexico through brokers, supermarkets, dollar stores, and club stores. Wal-Mart,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $38.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.
About Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.
Tootsie Roll Industries has manufactured confectionery products for over 125 years under more than 20 registered trademarks — including Tootsie Roll, Junior Mints, Tootsie Pops, Dots, and Dubble Bubble — sold throughout the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Wal-Mart represented approximately 22% of net product sales in 2025, McLane 19.7%, and Dollar Tree 13.1%, with the three together accounting for approximately 36% of net product sales.
Products reach consumers through food and grocery brokers or direct sales to wholesale candy distributors, supermarkets, variety stores, dollar stores, drug chains, discount chains, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, vending operators, and e-commerce marketplaces. Sales are highly seasonal, with third-quarter volume highest due to pre-Halloween demand — the most significant season — followed by Christmas, Valentine's Day, and Easter. The company hedges sugar and key ingredient costs using commodity futures contracts, typically entered before the start of each calendar year, to manage price volatility in a category where higher input costs are difficult to pass to customers quickly. The majority of Tootsie Roll's products are manufactured in a single production facility on specialized equipment, which the 10-K acknowledges would be difficult to relocate in the event of a fire, earthquake, or other disaster. Labor contracts at the Chicago plant expire September 2027 and at the Canadian plant expire January 2029, presenting near-term renegotiation windows. Production facilities in Canada also export the majority of their output to the United States.
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The combined 36% revenue share from McLane, Wal-Mart, and Dollar Tree represents the primary channel concentration risk. Item 1A explicitly warns that the loss of any of these customers, or a material decrease in purchases by one or more large customers, could result in decreased sales and adversely impact the company's results of operations and financial condition. McLane additionally functions as a logistics conduit routing a portion of Wal-Mart and Dollar Tree deliveries, meaning disruption to McLane alone could affect revenues attributed to multiple end-retail chains simultaneously.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Confectioners
From Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-06Recent Developments — Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Tootsie Roll Industries (NYSE:TR) Stock Price Passes Below 200 Day Moving Average - Should You Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS TR (Tootsie Roll Industries Inc.) dips 1.6% after releasing Q3 2023 earnings with no published analyst consensus estimat — Xã Thanh Hà negative
- NEWS Tootsie (TR) Stock: Portfolio Review (-0.19%) 2026-04-22 - Social Buy Zones - Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La neutral
- NEWS Tootsie (TR) Stock: Portfolio Review (-0.19%) 2026-04-22 - Community Volume Signals - Xã Vĩnh Công — Xã Vĩnh Công neutral
- NEWS Tootsie (TR) Stock: Portfolio Review (-0.19%) 2026-04-22 - Social Buy Zones - Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai neutral
Generated 2026-09-06T19:26:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWal-Mart22%10-K Item 1: 'net product sales from Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. ("Wal-Mart") aggregated approximately 22.0%'
- LOWCustomerMcLane20%10-K Item 1: 'Net product sales revenues from McLane... were 19.7% in 2025'
- LOWCustomerDollar Tree13%10-K Item 1: 'Our net sales from Dollar Tree, Inc. ("Dollar Tree"... aggregated approximately 13.1%, 12.6%, and 14.2% of net product sales'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -0.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $38.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $37.24. Score 3.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $41.14 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $37.24. Stop-loss: $37.24.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 3.7/10.
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.5 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
What does Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. do?Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures confectionery products under more than 20 registered trademarks — including...
Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures confectionery products under more than 20 registered trademarks — including Tootsie Roll, Junior Mints, Tootsie Pops, and Dots — sold across the US, Canada, and Mexico through brokers, supermarkets, dollar stores, and club stores. Wal-Mart, McLane, and Dollar Tree together accounted for approximately 36% of net product sales in 2025, with approximately 2,100 full-time employees.