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Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.96, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and... Read more

$38.96+16.1% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#5 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.26%
Stop $36.67Target $45.13(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$50.15+28.7%20 analysts
$45.13our TP
$38.96price
$50.15mean
$57

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.96, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Antero Resources Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$12.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn17.1%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth34.3%
Beta0.36
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 6.5>=5.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.63Resistance $40.08

Price Targets

$37
$45
A.Upside+15.8%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts29
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$50

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.96, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $45.13 (+15.8%), stop $36.67 (−6.2%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

What is the AR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.13 (+16.1% upside). Target $45.13 (+15.8%), stop $36.67 (−6.2%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $36.67.

What are the risks of investing in AR?

Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is AR overvalued or undervalued?

Antero Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AR?

29 analysts cover AR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Antero Resources Corporation do?Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production,...

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 537,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and approximately 168,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. Its gathering and compression systems also comprise 731 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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