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Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. At $39.60, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas, NGLs and oil.

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and... Read more

$39.60+12.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#15 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $36.95Target $44.44(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$49.38+24.7%21 analysts
$44.44our TP
$39.60price
$49.38mean
$36
$56

Sell if holding. At $39.60, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas, NGLs and oil. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas, NGLs and oil
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$12.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn12.3%
ROE9.0%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta0.42
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.09bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditynatural gas, NGLs and oil
    10-K Item 1A: 'Natural gas, NGLs and oil price volatility, or a substantial or prolonged period of low natural gas, NGLs and oil prices, may adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.1
Value Rank
5.6
Growth Rank
6.3
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.31Resistance $41.80

Price Targets

$37
$44
A.Upside+12.2%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $39.60, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas, NGLs and oil. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $36.95. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.44 (+12.3% upside). Prior stop was $36.95. Stop-loss: $36.95.

What are the risks of investing in AR?

Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas, NGLs and oil; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is AR overvalued or undervalued?

Antero Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AR?

30 analysts cover AR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $49.

What does Antero Resources Corporation do?Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production,...

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 537,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and approximately 168,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. Its gathering and compression systems also comprise 731 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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