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Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.97: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Tri Pointe Homes is a national homebuilder operating in 17 markets across 12 states and DC, targeting first-time, move-up, luxury, and active-adult buyers with base prices $190K–3.2M. The company delivered 4,947 homes at an average $680K in 2025 and controlled 32,219 lots. In... Read more

$46.97-1.9% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#16 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.36%
Stop $46.83Target $46.05(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$47.00+0.1%2 analysts
Range unavailable (2 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.97: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Tri Pointe Homes, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-14.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.4
P/E (Fwd)22.6
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn5.7%
ROE5.5%
Rev Growth-29.6%
Beta1.16
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

IV46%normal
Max Pain$55+17.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -29.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -30%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.9
Value Rank
1.9

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.2
Operating Margin
0.5
Roe
1.8
Roa
2.3
Net Margin
2.8
Moat
3.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Fcf Quality
5.5
Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $46.76Resistance $46.99

Price Targets

$47
$46
A.Upside-2.0%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.97: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $46.83. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the TPH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.05 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $46.83. Stop-loss: $46.83.

What are the risks of investing in TPH?

Target reached (-14.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is TPH overvalued or undervalued?

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TPH?

13 analysts cover TPH with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. do?Tri Pointe Homes is a national homebuilder operating in 17 markets across 12 states and DC, targeting first-time,...

Tri Pointe Homes is a national homebuilder operating in 17 markets across 12 states and DC, targeting first-time, move-up, luxury, and active-adult buyers with base prices $190K–3.2M. The company delivered 4,947 homes at an average $680K in 2025 and controlled 32,219 lots. In February 2026, Tri Pointe agreed to be acquired by Sumitomo Forestry at $47 per share.

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