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Ford Motor Company (F) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.90: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro,... Read more

$11.90+4.2% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#14 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
Stop $11.20Target $12.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$13.78+15.8%20 analysts
$12.40our TP
$11.90price
$13.78mean
$10
$18

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.90: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.6
Mkt Cap$49.1B
EV/EBITDA34.5
Profit Mgn-4.4%
ROE-20.2%
Rev Growth-4.8%
Beta1.71
Dividend4.90%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.37bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$5-58.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Designation | Description | Method of Filing | | [Exhibit 99](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/37996/000003799626000081/exhibit99.htm) | News release dated April 15, 2026 | Furnished with this Report | | | | Exhibit 104 | Cover Page Interactive Data File | ** | (formatted in Inline XBRL) |...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.3
Declining revenue: -5%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Current Ratio
4.2
Moat
5.0
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
3.3
Rsi
4.5
Volume
4.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
3.1
Value Rank
4.7
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.35Resistance $13.04

Price Targets

$11
$12
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is F stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.90: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $11.20. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the F stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.40 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.20. Stop-loss: $11.20.

What are the risks of investing in F?

Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0).

Is F overvalued or undervalued?

Ford Motor Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about F?

30 analysts cover F with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Ford Motor Company do?Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and...

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

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