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Ford Motor Company (F) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.07: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality.

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro,... Read more

$13.07+12.4% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#14 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-4.21%
IncomeYield4.48%(5y avg 5.76%)Payout64.10%
Stop $12.12Target $14.64(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$13.70+4.8%20 analysts
$14.64our TP
$13.07price
$13.70mean
$10
$18

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.07: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Ford Motor Company

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-5.4% upside)
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.8%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.57% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$53.4B
EV/EBITDA25.2
Profit Mgn-3.2%
ROE-14.8%
Rev Growth6.4%
Beta1.66
Dividend4.48%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.35bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$5-61.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Designation | Description | Method of Filing | | [Exhibit 99](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/37996/000003799626000081/exhibit99.htm) | News release dated April 15, 2026 | Furnished with this Report | | | | Exhibit 104 | Cover Page Interactive Data File | ** | (formatted in Inline XBRL) |...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.2
Operating Margin
2.3
Moat
3.6
Current Ratio
4.3
Piotroski F
5.6
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
3.0
Value Rank
4.7
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.31Resistance $14.94

Price Targets

$12
$15
A.Upside+12.0%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.8%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.57% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is F stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.07: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $12.12. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the F stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.64 (+12.4% upside). Prior stop was $12.12. Stop-loss: $12.12.

What are the risks of investing in F?

Target reached (-5.4% upside); Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.8%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.57% of cap).

Is F overvalued or undervalued?

Ford Motor Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about F?

30 analysts cover F with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Ford Motor Company do?Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and...

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

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