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T1 Energy Inc. (TE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.83: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality.

T1 Energy manufactures PV solar modules in Wilmer, TX (G1_Dallas, 5 GW annual capacity) and is constructing a 2.1 GW solar cell fab in Milam County, TX (G2_Austin, targeting late 2026). It sells primarily into the utility-scale market. One customer accounted for 78% of 2025 net... Read more

$4.83+60.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#1 of 18 Electrical Equipment & Parts
Stop $4.50Target $7.74(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$8.90+84.3%5 analysts
$7.74our TP
$4.83price
$8.90mean
$11

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.83: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: single customer (78.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA-20.8
Profit Mgn-48.7%
ROE-115.0%
Rev Growth12087.4%
Beta1.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.38bearish
IV131%elevated
Max Pain$12+148.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomersingle customer78%
    10-K Item 1A: 'one customer accounted for 78% of our total net sales'
  • HIGHGeographicTexas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is concentrated in certain markets including Texas, putting us at risk of region-specific disruptions'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOW
    Two directors resigned: Tore Ivar Slettemoen (March 26) and Mingxing Lin (March 30). Neither resignation related to any disagreement with the Company. No successors named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-06Item 5.02LOW
    Denise Cruz, SVP/Chief Accounting Officer and Controller, terminated February 5, 2026. Tom Mahrer, 42, appointed Chief Accounting Officer and Controller effective February 5, 2026 as successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Unprofitable operations — net margin -48.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.3
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MEarnings in 13 days

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
4.7
Bollinger
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.74Resistance $5.80

Price Targets

$5
$8
A.Upside+60.2%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-14 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.83: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $4.50. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.74 (+60.1% upside). Prior stop was $4.50. Stop-loss: $4.50.

What are the risks of investing in TE?

Concentration risk — Customer: single customer (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is TE overvalued or undervalued?

T1 Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TE?

13 analysts cover TE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $9.

What does T1 Energy Inc. do?T1 Energy manufactures PV solar modules in Wilmer, TX (G1_Dallas, 5 GW annual capacity) and is constructing a 2.1 GW...

T1 Energy manufactures PV solar modules in Wilmer, TX (G1_Dallas, 5 GW annual capacity) and is constructing a 2.1 GW solar cell fab in Milam County, TX (G2_Austin, targeting late 2026). It sells primarily into the utility-scale market. One customer accounted for 78% of 2025 net sales. T1 is building a domestic solar supply chain to qualify for IRA 45X tax credits.

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