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Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1180.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative news sentiment (-1.00).

TransDigm Group designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components for commercial and military aircraft worldwide, with ~90% of net sales from proprietary products and ~55% from aftermarket channels in fiscal 2025, across Power & Control, Airframe,... Read more

$1180.51+16.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.31%
Stop $1105.89Target $1379.01(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$1532.24+29.8%21 analysts
$1379.01our TP
$1180.51price
$1532.24mean
$1937

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1180.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative news sentiment (-1.00). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Transdigm Group Incorporated

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.5 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative news sentiment (-1.00)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.9
P/E (Fwd)25.2
Mkt Cap$66.1B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn21.9%
ROE
Rev Growth18.3%
Beta0.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C10.12bearish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$1710+44.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers40%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers for fiscal year 2025 accounted for approximately 40% of our net sales.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1128.21Resistance $1274.50

Price Targets

$1106
$1379
A.Upside+16.8%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TDG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1180.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative news sentiment (-1.00). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $1379.01 (+16.8%), stop $1105.89 (−6.7%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TDG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1379.01 (+16.6% upside). Target $1379.01 (+16.8%), stop $1105.89 (−6.7%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $1105.89.

What are the risks of investing in TDG?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative news sentiment (-1.00); Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TDG overvalued or undervalued?

Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at a P/E of 36.9 (forward 25.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TDG?

28 analysts cover TDG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $1532.

What does Transdigm Group Incorporated do?TransDigm Group designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components for commercial and...

TransDigm Group designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components for commercial and military aircraft worldwide, with ~90% of net sales from proprietary products and ~55% from aftermarket channels in fiscal 2025, across Power & Control, Airframe, and Non-aviation segments. No single customer exceeded 10% of net sales; the top 10 customers collectively accounted for approximately 40% of net sales.

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