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Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1157.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Weak growth.

TransDigm designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components critical to commercial and military aircraft, with ~90% of fiscal 2025 net sales from proprietary products. Approximately 55% of net sales came from the aftermarket, which has... Read more

$1157.09+20.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#31 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $1094.36Target $1383.43(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$1537.14+32.8%21 analysts
$1383.43our TP
$1157.09price
$1537.14mean
$1835

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1157.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 20%
Risks
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.8
P/E (Fwd)25.0
Mkt Cap$64.5B
EV/EBITDA19.8
Profit Mgn22.2%
ROE
Rev Growth13.9%
Beta0.95
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$660-43.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers40%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top ten customers for fiscal year 2025 accounted for approximately 40% of our net sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
6.0
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dA.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1128.21Resistance $1303.06

Price Targets

$1094
$1383
A.Upside+19.6%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TDG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1157.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $1094.36. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TDG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1383.43 (+20.0% upside). Prior stop was $1094.36. Stop-loss: $1094.36.

What are the risks of investing in TDG?

Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is TDG overvalued or undervalued?

Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at a P/E of 36.8 (forward 25.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TDG?

28 analysts cover TDG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $1537.

What does Transdigm Group Incorporated do?TransDigm designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components critical to commercial and...

TransDigm designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components critical to commercial and military aircraft, with ~90% of fiscal 2025 net sales from proprietary products. Approximately 55% of net sales came from the aftermarket, which has historically produced higher gross profit. Three segments: Power & Control, Airframe, and Non-aviation.

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