Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1301.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: aftermarket (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.4%.
TransDigm Group designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aerospace components for commercial and military aircraft through three segments: Power & Control, Airframe, and Non-aviation. Approximately 55% of fiscal year 2025 net sales came from aftermarket... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1301.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: aftermarket (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.4%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Transdigm Group Incorporated
About Transdigm Group Incorporated
TransDigm Group generated approximately 55% of fiscal year 2025 net sales from aftermarket channels, with the defense end market — covering defense OEMs and sales to the U.S. and friendly foreign governments — accounting for roughly 35-40% of annual net sales, and commercial aerospace OEM sales contributing an additional 25-30%. Approximately 90% of fiscal year 2025 net sales came from proprietary products across three segments: Power & Control, Airframe, and Non-aviation. The company employed approximately 16,500 people as of September 30, 2025, with 15% represented by labor unions under collective bargaining agreements expiring at various dates up to January 2029.
TransDigm earns revenue through two channels for most products: original equipment sales to aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and aftermarket sales once components are designed into a platform — with an estimated aircraft service life of 25 to 30 years and product life cycles in excess of 50 years. Aftermarket revenue has historically produced higher gross profit and greater stability than OEM sales. Power & Control covers mechanical and electromechanical actuators, ignition systems, pumps, valves, and motors; Airframe covers latching and locking devices, cockpit security systems, seat belts, and parachutes; Non-aviation covers industrial, mining, and ground transportation applications. The top ten customers in fiscal year 2025 accounted for about 40% of net sales, with no single customer exceeding 10% of revenue. Net sales to foreign customers were $3,296 million in fiscal year ended September 30, 2025. Competitors range from divisions of large public companies to small private entities in niche sub-markets.
Show full overview
The FAA regulates commercial aircraft components and TransDigm maintains several FAA-approved repair stations, also subject to European Union Aviation Safety Agency standards and military quality specifications for defense products. Because OEM certification for aerospace components is lengthy and expensive, the 10-K notes this creates a barrier for customers to recertify alternative suppliers, supporting long-term supplier relationships once a part is designed in. U.S. Government contracts can be terminated at convenience without cause, and the Department of Defense periodically audits pricing for 'fair and reasonable' determinations, which could result in reduced margins or pressure to develop alternative sources.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Transdigm Group Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Transdigm Group Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG): Stephen Mandel Continues Bullish Stance - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Is TDG Overvalued? DCF Says Worth $724 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Transdigm Group (TDG) Expected to Announce Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Artemis Investment Management LLP Sells 33,537 Shares of Transdigm Group Incorporated $TDG - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS At US$1,148, Is TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG) Worth Looking At Closely? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-06-17T09:12:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers40%10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers for fiscal year 2025 accounted for approximately 40% of our net sales.'
- MEDIUMCustomerdefense market10-K Item 1: 'the defense market ... which generally account for approximately 35% to 40% of our annual net sales'
- HIGHProductaftermarket55%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 55% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 were generated from the aftermarket'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1301.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: aftermarket (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.4%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $1371.60 (+5.4%), stop $1225.40 (−6.2%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $1371.60 (+5.4% upside). Target $1371.60 (+5.4%), stop $1225.40 (−6.2%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $1225.40.
Concentration risk — Product: aftermarket (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Expensive valuation.
Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at a P/E of 39.8 (forward 27.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
27 analysts cover TDG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $1524.
What does Transdigm Group Incorporated do?TransDigm Group designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aerospace components for commercial and...
TransDigm Group designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aerospace components for commercial and military aircraft through three segments: Power & Control, Airframe, and Non-aviation. Approximately 55% of fiscal year 2025 net sales came from aftermarket channels and the defense market accounted for roughly 35-40% of annual net sales, with no single customer exceeding 10% of revenue. TransDigm had approximately 16,500 employees as of September 30, 2025, with 15% represented by labor unions.