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TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $50.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

TriCo Bancshares operates as a bank holding company for Tri Counties Bank that provides commercial and retail banking services to individual and corporate customers. The company accepts demand, savings, and time deposits; and offers checking, specialized, money market,... Read more

$50.35+0.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#62 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.85%(5y avg 2.81%)Payout35.79%sustainable
Stop $48.57Target $50.40(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$56.00+11.2%6 analysts
$50.40our TP
$50.35price
$56.00mean
$63

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $50.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — TriCo Bancshares

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.0%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth10.7%
Beta0.62
Dividend2.85%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $48.62Resistance $51.43

Price Targets

$49
$50
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.2% upside)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TCBK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $50.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $50.40 (+0.1%), stop $48.57 (−3.7%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TCBK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.40 (+0.1% upside). Target $50.40 (+0.1%), stop $48.57 (−3.7%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $48.57.

What are the risks of investing in TCBK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is TCBK overvalued or undervalued?

TriCo Bancshares trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TCBK?

12 analysts cover TCBK with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $56.

What does TriCo Bancshares do?TriCo Bancshares operates as a bank holding company for Tri Counties Bank that provides commercial and retail banking...

TriCo Bancshares operates as a bank holding company for Tri Counties Bank that provides commercial and retail banking services to individual and corporate customers. The company accepts demand, savings, and time deposits; and offers checking, specialized, money market, education, health savings, certificate of deposit, and business and public funds savings accounts, as well as individual retirement accounts. It also offers small business loans; real estate mortgage loans, such as residential and commercial loans; consumer loans; mortgage, auto, and personal loans; commercial loans, including agricultural loans; motorcycle, RV, boat, and other vehicle loans; and real estate construction loans. In addition, the company provides treasury management services; credit and debit cards; other customary banking services comprising safe deposit boxes; and brokerage and wealth management services. Further, it offers equipment financing, digital banking, overdraft, and payment processing services. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Chico, California.

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