Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.46
- ▸Attractively valued
TCBK · Why this verdict
Why TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TriCo Bancshares has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 7%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.9 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.40, and maintains 31% net margins with a Piotroski health score of 8 out of 9 — though the stock is trading near its analyst target and within 2.8% of its 52-week high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
TriCo Bancshares has beat earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with individual surprises ranging from 3.1% to 14.5%, reflecting steady operational execution at a level that consistently exceeds market expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays above 3% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat cadence. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAt smaller positive surprise margins of 3-7%, the beat streak is vulnerable to any single quarter of cost pressure or slower loan growth; the bank operates with no identified competitive moat to protect earnings consistency. | ||
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.9 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.40, combining reasonable valuation with positive earnings growth momentum — a profile that historically supports patient capital appreciation. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings stays below 15 times while earnings estimates rise at least 5% from current levels within 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe analyst consensus price target has essentially been reached, meaning the current valuation already reflects much of the upside; limited remaining analyst-target upside constrains re-rating potential. | ||
Net margins of 31% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 place TriCo in strong standing on both profitability and balance sheet quality relative to regional bank peers. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 27% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bank's return on equity of 3.3 out of 10 in the quality composite is relatively modest, and rising interest rates or credit quality deterioration could compress margins despite the strong historical track record. | ||
With the stock trading at $51.67 and the take-profit target at $51.94, there is only 0.5% measured upside and the risk-to-reward ratio stands at just 0.11 — indicating that near-term gains are capped unless analyst targets are revised upward. Targets | A new analyst price target exceeds $58, creating at least 12% upside from the current price and restoring a risk-to-reward ratio above 1.5. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterSmall-cap community banks that deliver consistent beats often receive incremental target increases after each earnings report; the 4-quarter streak positions TriCo well for upward revisions. | ||
TriCo Bancshares has beat earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with individual surprises ranging from 3.1% to 14.5%, reflecting steady operational execution at a level that consistently exceeds market expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays above 3% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat cadence.
CounterAt smaller positive surprise margins of 3-7%, the beat streak is vulnerable to any single quarter of cost pressure or slower loan growth; the bank operates with no identified competitive moat to protect earnings consistency.
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.9 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.40, combining reasonable valuation with positive earnings growth momentum — a profile that historically supports patient capital appreciation.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings stays below 15 times while earnings estimates rise at least 5% from current levels within 12 months.
CounterThe analyst consensus price target has essentially been reached, meaning the current valuation already reflects much of the upside; limited remaining analyst-target upside constrains re-rating potential.
Net margins of 31% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 place TriCo in strong standing on both profitability and balance sheet quality relative to regional bank peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 27% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above over the next four reported quarters.
CounterThe bank's return on equity of 3.3 out of 10 in the quality composite is relatively modest, and rising interest rates or credit quality deterioration could compress margins despite the strong historical track record.
With the stock trading at $51.67 and the take-profit target at $51.94, there is only 0.5% measured upside and the risk-to-reward ratio stands at just 0.11 — indicating that near-term gains are capped unless analyst targets are revised upward.
Tripped→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A new analyst price target exceeds $58, creating at least 12% upside from the current price and restoring a risk-to-reward ratio above 1.5.
CounterSmall-cap community banks that deliver consistent beats often receive incremental target increases after each earnings report; the 4-quarter streak positions TriCo well for upward revisions.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 8.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| beta | 9.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 11.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.84
Upside
-9.8%
Downside
11.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.5 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Insider at 7.3, and Growth at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.1, Technical at 5.0, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.84 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the consistent beat pattern.
- P2Value Growth CombinationTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 18 times without a corresponding increase in earnings growth estimates.
- P3Strong Margin And Financial Health
Trip ifNet margin drops below 25% in any reported quarter, more than 6 percentage points below the current 31% level.
- P4Near Target Limited UpsideTripped
Trip ifStock price rises above $56, more than 8% above the current $51.67, without analyst target upgrades to match.