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German American Bancorp, Inc. (GABC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Wait for pullback to $40.28. At $43.00 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $40.28 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

German American Bancorp operates German American Bank with 94 banking offices in Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio, offering retail/commercial banking and wealth management. Total assets were .4 billion at December 31, 2025, following the February 2025 acquisition of Heartland... Read more

$43.00+7.7% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#9 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $40.28(Rr Min Solve Sticky)Stop $38.22Target $43.15(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1Setup A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$49.60+15.3%5 analysts
$43.15our TP
$43.00price
$49.60mean
$52

Wait for pullback to $40.28. At $43.00 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $40.28 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.9Qual5.4Grw10.0Mom3.1Sent6.7Ins5.0Peer6.0Tech7.6Risk4.26.5OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.1
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn36.6%
ROE12.2%
Rev Growth42.3%
Beta—
Dividend2.79%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV78%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicIndiana, Kentucky, Ohio
    10-K Item 1A: 'offices that are located throughout Indiana (central/southern), Kentucky (northern/central/western), and Ohio ... our results depend largely upon economic conditions in these areas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved 2026 Management Incentive Plan for executive officers on March 2, 2026, as recommended by Compensation/Human Resources Committee. No departures or appointments; routine annual compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.73Resistance $44.80

Price Targets

$38
$40
$43
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GABC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $40.28. At $43.00 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $40.28 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $43.15 (+0.3%), stop $38.22 (−12.5%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GABC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.15 (+7.7% upside). Target $43.15 (+0.3%), stop $38.22 (−12.5%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $38.22.

What are the risks of investing in GABC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.4% away).

Is GABC overvalued or undervalued?

German American Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.1 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GABC?

12 analysts cover GABC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $50.

What does German American Bancorp, Inc. do?German American Bancorp operates German American Bank with 94 banking offices in Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio, offering...

German American Bancorp operates German American Bank with 94 banking offices in Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio, offering retail/commercial banking and wealth management. Total assets were .4 billion at December 31, 2025, following the February 2025 acquisition of Heartland BancCorp.

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