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TARSTarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Sell6.1·$61.95-1.05%
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Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $61.95: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY.

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with XDEMVY (lotilaner ophthalmic solution), the first and only FDA-approved treatment for Demodex blepharitis, generating over $646 million in net product sales since its August 2023 launch. Additional... Read more

$61.95+32.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#25 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.80%
Stop $57.61Target $81.88(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$94.11+51.9%9 analysts
$81.88our TP
$61.95price
$94.11mean
$100

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $61.95: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 32%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.27% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)21.6
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA-48.3
Profit Mgn-9.0%
ROE-14.0%
Rev Growth106.9%
Beta0.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C22.55bearish
IV99%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductXDEMVY
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have one product, XDEMVY®, formerly known as TP-03, which obtained Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") approval for the treatment of Demodex blepharitis in the U.S. in July 2023.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02LOW
    David E.I. Pyott appointed to Board of Directors effective February 18, 2026, expanding board from 7 to 8. Named Chair of Commercial Committee and member of Nominating and Compensation Committees. Routine board expansion; no arrangement with any other person cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $56.00Resistance $65.98

Price Targets

$58
$82
A.Upside+32.2%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TARS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $61.95: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $57.61. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TARS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.88 (+32.2% upside). Prior stop was $57.61. Stop-loss: $57.61.

What are the risks of investing in TARS?

Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.27% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is TARS overvalued or undervalued?

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 21.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TARS?

15 analysts cover TARS with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $94.

What does Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with XDEMVY (lotilaner ophthalmic solution), the...

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with XDEMVY (lotilaner ophthalmic solution), the first and only FDA-approved treatment for Demodex blepharitis, generating over $646 million in net product sales since its August 2023 launch. Additional pipeline candidates include TP-04 (Phase 2, ocular rosacea) and TP-05 (Lyme disease prophylaxis).

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