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Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $63.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with XDEMVY (lotilaner ophthalmic solution), the first and only FDA-approved treatment for Demodex blepharitis, generating over $646 million in net product sales since its August 2023 launch. Additional... Read more

$63.21+30.0% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#22 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.81%
Stop $58.65Target $81.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$94.22+49.1%9 analysts
$81.97our TP
$63.21price
$94.22mean
$100

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $63.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)22.4
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA-47.7
Profit Mgn-9.0%
ROE-14.0%
Rev Growth106.9%
Beta0.53
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.09bearish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$45-28.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductXDEMVY
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have one product, XDEMVY®, formerly known as TP-03, which obtained Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") approval for the treatment of Demodex blepharitis in the U.S. in July 2023.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02LOW
    David E.I. Pyott appointed to Board of Directors effective February 18, 2026, expanding board from 7 to 8. Named Chair of Commercial Committee and member of Nominating and Compensation Committees. Routine board expansion; no arrangement with any other person cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $57.81Resistance $66.79

Price Targets

$59
$82
A.Upside+29.7%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TARS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $63.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $58.65. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TARS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.97 (+30.0% upside). Prior stop was $58.65. Stop-loss: $58.65.

What are the risks of investing in TARS?

Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is TARS overvalued or undervalued?

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 22.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TARS?

15 analysts cover TARS with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $94.

What does Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with XDEMVY (lotilaner ophthalmic solution), the...

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with XDEMVY (lotilaner ophthalmic solution), the first and only FDA-approved treatment for Demodex blepharitis, generating over $646 million in net product sales since its August 2023 launch. Additional pipeline candidates include TP-04 (Phase 2, ocular rosacea) and TP-05 (Lyme disease prophylaxis).

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