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Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $60.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on eye care. It launched XDEMVY (lotilaner ophthalmic solution 0.25%) in August 2023, the first FDA-approved treatment for Demodex blepharitis, targeting an estimated 25 million affected Americans.... Read more

$60.91+34.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#29 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $58.08Target $81.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$94.22+54.7%9 analysts
$81.97our TP
$60.91price
$94.22mean
$100

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $60.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 35%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)20.6
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA-32.5
Profit Mgn-14.7%
ROE-23.4%
Rev Growth128.4%
Beta0.63
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70neutral
IV108%elevated
Max Pain$45-26.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductXDEMVY
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have one product, XDEMVY®...a single product approved for commercial sale'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02LOW
    Board expanded from 7 to 8 directors; David E.I. Pyott appointed as Class III director effective February 18, 2026. Appointed Chair of Commercial Committee and member of Nominating and Compensation Committees. No departure or disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 17, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 6 days
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
17 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $59.88Resistance $74.39

Price Targets

$58
$82
A.Upside+34.6%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TARS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $60.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $58.08. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TARS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.97 (+34.6% upside). Prior stop was $58.08. Stop-loss: $58.08.

What are the risks of investing in TARS?

Concentration risk — Product: XDEMVY; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is TARS overvalued or undervalued?

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 20.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TARS?

15 analysts cover TARS with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $94.

What does Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on eye care. It launched XDEMVY...

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on eye care. It launched XDEMVY (lotilaner ophthalmic solution 0.25%) in August 2023, the first FDA-approved treatment for Demodex blepharitis, targeting an estimated 25 million affected Americans. Pipeline candidates include TP-04 for ocular rosacea and TP-05 for Lyme disease prophylaxis.

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