Latham Group shows insider buying and strong cash conversion alongside an early death-cross recovery, but quality sits right at the engine's floor and analyst coverage is thin.
Thesis pillars
- Insider Buying Confidence→Stable
- Excellent Cash Conversion At Floor→Stable
- Death Cross Recovery→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 4, 2026
Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Wait for pullback to $6.53. At $7.31 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $6.53 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
Latham Group is the largest designer, manufacturer, and marketer of in-ground residential swimming pools in North America, Australia, and New Zealand, selling fiberglass pools, custom vinyl packaged pools, pool covers, and liners through roughly 30 manufacturing and distribution... Read more
Wait for pullback to $6.53. At $7.31 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $6.53 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Latham Group, Inc.
About Latham Group, Inc.
Latham Group holds the leading North American position in every pool product category it competes in, operating across roughly 30 manufacturing and distribution locations in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand with about 1,850 employees. The company's largest distributor accounted for 22.6% of net sales in 2025, and its top ten dealer and distributor relationships together made up 49.0% of net sales, up from 40.4% in 2023. Latham sells fiberglass pools through one-step direct-to-dealer distribution and vinyl packaged pools, covers, and liners through a two-step distributor network.
Latham earns recurring revenue not just from new pool installations but from replacement demand: vinyl liners and all-season covers typically need replacement every eight to ten years, which the company calls a stable, non-discretionary revenue source. On the input side, Latham buys PVC, galvanized steel, fiberglass, aluminum, resins, and other materials from a base of 233 suppliers, with 60% of 2025 supply spend concentrated in its top ten suppliers and 12% from its single largest supplier; most contracts are negotiated annually without fixed-price protection, so raw material cost swings flow directly into cost of sales. The company's exclusive supply arrangement with Premier Pools & Spas, once a meaningful volume driver, was converted to a non-exclusive preferred-supplier agreement effective January 16, 2025. Latham has also pursued acquisitions to expand share, including Coverstar Central in August 2024 and two smaller Coverstar dealers in February 2025, extending its automatic-safety-cover distribution into 29 additional states.
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Latham's results move with the U.S. housing and consumer-credit cycle rather than with a single input cost: the 10-K discloses that demand declined in 2024 and 2025 and is expected to remain constrained into 2026 until discretionary consumer spending recovers, since a significant share of pool buyers finance their purchase and higher interest rates have made that financing less available. Layered onto that cyclicality is import exposure through the company's Kingston, Ontario manufacturing facility and other non-U.S.-sourced raw materials such as steel and aluminum, which the filing says remain subject to tariff increases whose scope and timing are still uncertain.
See also: Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
From Latham Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-11-02Recent Developments — Latham Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Latham Group, Inc. to Participate at Conferences in November and December 2026 - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS After Something Hit His Kayak, He Had to Swim to Shore - Newser — Newser neutral
- NEWS Swim school, art lounge among 10 projects filed in Katy | Katy - Fulshear - Community Impact Newspaper — Community Impact Newspaper neutral
- NEWS Latham Group (SWIM) Set to Announce Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Latham Group (SWIM) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-11-02T11:58:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerlargest distributor23%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest distributor, which provides valuable local market support with a network of over 300 locations, accounted for 22.6% of our net sales in 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten dealer and distributor relationships49%10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten dealer and distributor relationships accounted for 49.0% of our net sales in 2025'
- MEDIUMSuppliertop ten suppliers60%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, we purchased supplies from 233 suppliers, with 60% of supplies being purchased from our top ten suppliers and 12% of supplies being purchased from our largest supplier.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved the Second Amendment to the Latham Group, Inc. 2021 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan at the April 30, 2026 annual meeting; routine plan amendment previously approved by the Board.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $6.53. At $7.31 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $6.53 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $7.42 (+1.5%), stop $6.07 (−20.4%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $7.42 (+1.5% upside). Target $7.42 (+1.5%), stop $6.07 (−20.4%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $6.07.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Latham Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 146.2 (forward 24.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
13 analysts cover SWIM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $9.
What does Latham Group, Inc. do?Latham Group is the largest designer, manufacturer, and marketer of in-ground residential swimming pools in North...
Latham Group is the largest designer, manufacturer, and marketer of in-ground residential swimming pools in North America, Australia, and New Zealand, selling fiberglass pools, custom vinyl packaged pools, pool covers, and liners through roughly 30 manufacturing and distribution locations. The company sells through one-step (fiberglass, direct-to-dealer) and two-step (vinyl products via distributors) channels, with its largest distributor accounting for 22.6% of 2025 net sales and its top ten dealer and distributor relationships accounting for 49.0%. Latham differentiates through a direct-to-h