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Suzano S.A. (SUZ) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Basic Materials · Paper & Paper Products

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.14 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Suzano S.A. manufactures and sells pulp and paper products in Brazil and internationally. It operates in two segments, Cellulose, and Paper. The company offers coated and uncoated printing and writing papers, paperboards, tissue papers, and market and fluff pulps. It also... Read more

$8.14+35.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#1 of 2 Basic Materials (sector)
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-18.13%
IncomeYield0.01%(5y avg 1.79%)Payout12.66%sustainable
Stop $7.87Target $11.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.6:1
Analyst target$12.70+56.0%5 analysts
$11.05our TP
$8.14price
$12.70mean
$15

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.14 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Suzano S.A.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 70%
Analyst upside: 36%
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.5
P/E (Fwd)5.5
Mkt Cap$10.1B
EV/EBITDA4.1
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE26.3%
Rev Growth-5.1%
Beta0.11
Dividend0.01%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C6.50bearish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -5.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.2
Declining revenue: -5%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.7
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.4
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 6.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.11Resistance $9.70

Price Targets

$8
$11
A.Upside+35.7%
A.R:R6.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SUZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.14 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $7.87. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the SUZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.05 (+35.7% upside). Prior stop was $7.87. Stop-loss: $7.87.

What are the risks of investing in SUZ?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is SUZ overvalued or undervalued?

Suzano S.A. trades at a P/E of 4.5 (forward 5.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SUZ?

22 analysts cover SUZ with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Suzano S.A. do?Suzano S.A. manufactures and sells pulp and paper products in Brazil and internationally. It operates in two segments,...

Suzano S.A. manufactures and sells pulp and paper products in Brazil and internationally. It operates in two segments, Cellulose, and Paper. The company offers coated and uncoated printing and writing papers, paperboards, tissue papers, and market and fluff pulps. It also engages in the research, development, and production of biofuel; operation of port terminals; biotechnology and nanocrystalline pulps research and development activities; power generation and distribution business; road freight transport activities; commercialization of equipment and parts; research and development of lignin; industrialization and commercialization of cellulose, microfiber cellulose, paper, and paperboard products; and industrialization, commercialization, and exporting of pulp products. In addition, the company is involved in the commercial office, corporate venture capital, and financial fundraising activities; production of consumer goods through cellulose-based liquids; development and production of cellulose-based fibers, yarns, and textile filaments; restoration, conservation, and preservation of forests; and research of raw materials for the textile industry. The company was formerly known as Suzano Papel e Celulose S.A. and changed its name to Suzano S.A. in April 2019. The company was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Salvador, Brazil.

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