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State Street Corporation (STT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $153.74 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas.

State Street Corporation is a global custodian and investment services bank with $53.80T in AUC/A and $5.67T in AUM, serving institutional investors through Investment Servicing and Investment Management. It had $366B in total assets and ~52,000 employees as of December 31, 2025.

$153.74-0.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#97 of 112 Asset Management
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.19%(5y avg 3.01%)Payout33.30%sustainable
Stop $147.60Target $153.06(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$160.54+4.4%14 analysts
$153.06our TP
$153.74price
$160.54mean
$120
$175

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $153.74 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — State Street Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.6
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$42.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn21.3%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth-2.8%
Beta1.46
Dividend2.19%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70neutral
IV33%normal
Max Pain$45-70.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicAmericas
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately $37.42 trillion in the Americas, approximately $12.92 trillion in Europe and the Middle East and approximately $3.46 trillion in the Asia-Pacific region'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOW
    C. Jack Read appointed EVP, Global Controller and Chief Accounting Officer effective August 10, 2026, succeeding Elizabeth M. Schaefer. Previously Global Controller at MSCI Inc. No reason for predecessor departure cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-23Item 5.02LOW
    Susan Gordon elected as independent director effective March 19, 2026. Appointed to Examining and Audit Committee and Technology and Operations Committee. No arrangement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -2.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.8
Declining revenue: -3%
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $147.40Resistance $156.18

Price Targets

$148
$153
A.Upside-0.4%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-14 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $153.74 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $147.60. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $153.06 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $147.60. Stop-loss: $147.60.

What are the risks of investing in STT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away).

Is STT overvalued or undervalued?

State Street Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STT?

21 analysts cover STT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $161.

What does State Street Corporation do?State Street Corporation is a global custodian and investment services bank with $53.80T in AUC/A and $5.67T in AUM,...

State Street Corporation is a global custodian and investment services bank with $53.80T in AUC/A and $5.67T in AUM, serving institutional investors through Investment Servicing and Investment Management. It had $366B in total assets and ~52,000 employees as of December 31, 2025.

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