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STNEStoneCo Ltd.Hold6.4·$10.99+0.00%
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StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. The company provides financial services, including payment, prepayment, digital banking,... Read more

$10.99+43.6% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#12 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield86.49%
Stop $10.22Target $15.78(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$17.53+59.5%16 analysts
$15.78our TP
$10.99price
$17.53mean
$9
$24

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.0
P/E (Fwd)4.4
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA1.2
Profit Mgn25.9%
ROE30.7%
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta1.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV207%elevated
Max Pain$11+4.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.07Resistance $11.85

Price Targets

$10
$16
A.Upside+43.6%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STNE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $15.78 (+43.6%), stop $10.22 (−7.5%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STNE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.78 (+43.6% upside). Target $15.78 (+43.6%), stop $10.22 (−7.5%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Stop-loss: $10.22.

What are the risks of investing in STNE?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is STNE overvalued or undervalued?

StoneCo Ltd. trades at a P/E of 4.0 (forward 4.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about STNE?

20 analysts cover STNE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $18.

What does StoneCo Ltd. do?StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct...

StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. The company provides financial services, including payment, prepayment, digital banking, and credit solutions. It offers payment solutions of electronic payments and alternative payment methods, such as payment slips and Pix transactions; digital product to help merchants improve their consumers' experience, which include split-payment processing, multi-payment processing, and recurring payments for subscriptions; and tap on phone solution. In addition, the company provides prepayment; digital banking; and credit solution. The company serves online, offline, and omni-channel sales clients under Stone, tonstone, and paggar.me. StoneCo Ltd. was founded in 2012 and is based in George Town, the Cayman Islands.

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