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StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.50: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. The company provides financial services, including payment, prepayment, digital banking,... Read more

$10.50+58.2% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#9 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield93.09%
Stop $9.57Target $16.28(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 6.5:1
Analyst target$18.09+72.3%16 analysts
$16.28our TP
$10.50price
$18.09mean
$24

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.50: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(8), earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — StoneCo Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.7
P/E (Fwd)4.0
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA1.2
Profit Mgn25.9%
ROE30.7%
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta1.60
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV166%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 6.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(8)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.45Resistance $12.99

Price Targets

$10
$16
A.Upside+55.0%
A.R:R6.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STNE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.50: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $9.57. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STNE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.28 (+58.2% upside). Prior stop was $9.57. Stop-loss: $9.57.

What are the risks of investing in STNE?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Below 200-day MA.

Is STNE overvalued or undervalued?

StoneCo Ltd. trades at a P/E of 3.7 (forward 4.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STNE?

20 analysts cover STNE with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does StoneCo Ltd. do?StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct...

StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. The company provides financial services, including payment, prepayment, digital banking, and credit solutions. It offers payment solutions of electronic payments and alternative payment methods, such as payment slips and Pix transactions; digital product to help merchants improve their consumers' experience, which include split-payment processing, multi-payment processing, and recurring payments for subscriptions; and tap on phone solution. In addition, the company provides prepayment; digital banking; and credit solution. The company serves online, offline, and omni-channel sales clients under Stone, tonstone, and paggar.me. StoneCo Ltd. was founded in 2012 and is based in George Town, the Cayman Islands.

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