StoneCo trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 4.4x with a PEG ratio of 0.02, earns a return on equity of 31%, and analysts carry a consensus target implying 59% upside, but the stock is in a confirmed price downtrend below all moving averages and earnings estimates are trending downward, creating a valuation opportunity with significant near-term execution risk.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Valuation 4x Pe Roe 31pct→Stable
- Earnings Estimates Trending Down↑Improving
- Confirmed Death Cross Momentum Failure↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Wait for pullback to $9.13. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.60. Engine's entry $9.13 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. The company provides financial services, including payment, prepayment, digital banking,... Read more
Wait for pullback to $9.13. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.60. Engine's entry $9.13 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Value play: 76% MoS with quality 8.2. | Falling knife (FK=6.0): wait for stabilization. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — StoneCo Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS StoneCo: A Guidance Cut Could Be The Next Shoe To Drop (NASDAQ:STNE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha negative
- NEWS Andra AP fonden Acquires 240,000 Shares of StoneCo Ltd. $STNE - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS StoneCo Ltd. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $15.93, Implies 41% Upside - TradingView — TradingView positive
Generated 2026-08-16T22:17:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $9.13. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.60. Engine's entry $9.13 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Value play: 76% MoS with quality 8.2. | Falling knife (FK=6.0): wait for stabilization. Target $14.06 (+46.5%), stop $8.49 (−13.1%), A.R:R 5.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $14.06 (+47.2% upside). Target $14.06 (+46.5%), stop $8.49 (−13.1%), A.R:R 5.3:1. Stop-loss: $8.49.
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak growth.
StoneCo Ltd. trades at a P/E of 3.6 (forward 4.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
22 analysts cover STNE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $16.
What does StoneCo Ltd. do?StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct...
StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. The company provides financial services, including payment, prepayment, digital banking, and credit solutions. It offers payment solutions of electronic payments and alternative payment methods, such as payment slips and Pix transactions; digital product to help merchants improve their consumers' experience, which include split-payment processing, multi-payment processing, and recurring payments for subscriptions; and tap on phone solution. In addition, the company provides prepayment; digital banking; and credit solution. The company serves online, offline, and omni-channel sales clients under Stone, tonstone, and paggar.me. StoneCo Ltd. was founded in 2012 and is based in George Town, the Cayman Islands.