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STMSTMicroelectronics N.V.Sell6.1·$46.90
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

STMicroelectronics has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 34% and its quality score of 3.5 sits below the minimum threshold, while free cash flow is deeply negative at -245% of net income; the indicated price upside is also negative, making the fundamental and technical cases both weak.

Thesis pillars

  • 23pct Revenue Growth Thesis→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Streak 34pct Avg↑Improving
  • Below Quality Floor Negative Fcf↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $46.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

STMicroelectronics N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Analog products, MEMS and Sensors Group (AM&S); Power... Read more

$46.90+39.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#21 of 53 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.24%
IncomeYield0.73%(5y avg 0.69%)Payout900.00%at-risk
Stop $45.01Target $65.29(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$75.04+60.0%12 analysts
$65.29our TP
$46.90price
$75.04mean
$98

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $46.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202615d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)1239.3
P/E (Fwd)19.5
Mkt Cap$44.4B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE2.7%
Rev Growth26.1%
Beta1.48
Dividend0.73%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.34bullish
IV75%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
6.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+9.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 15d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $46.40Resistance $59.29

Price Targets

$45
$65
A.Upside+39.2%
A.R:R4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (15d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $46.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $45.01. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $65.29 (+39.2% upside). Prior stop was $45.01. Stop-loss: $45.01.

What are the risks of investing in STM?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is STM overvalued or undervalued?

STMicroelectronics N.V. trades at a P/E of 1239.3 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STM?

26 analysts cover STM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $75.

What does STMicroelectronics N.V. do?STMicroelectronics N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor...

STMicroelectronics N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Analog products, MEMS and Sensors Group (AM&S); Power and Discrete products (P&D); Embedded Processing (“EMP”); and RF Products (D&RF) segments. It offers industrial application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) and application-specific standard products (ASSPs); power management solutions; custom analog ICs, wireless charging solutions; galvanic isolated gate and LED drivers; converters, transistors, intelligent power switches, clocks and timers, comparators, and current-sense amplifiers; micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) sensors, including accelerometers, gyroscopes, magnetic sensors, pressure, temperature, presence detection, biosensors, machine learning, and edge AI processing smart sensors, as well as thermal and piezoelectric actuators; and optical sensing solutions. The company also provides silicon MOSFETs, SiC MOSFETs, IGBTs, thyristors, rectifiers, and power modules and bipolar transistors; microcontrollers, and automotive microcontrollers and secured; radio frequency (RF) communications and ASICs; car infotainment products; ultra-wide band and radar systems; and Connected Security Products; and automotive driver assistance systems. It serves automotive, industrial, personal electronics and communications equipment, and computers and peripherals markets. STMicroelectronics N.V. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Schiphol, the Netherlands.

Related stocks: SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corpo) · CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.) · CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) · MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.)
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