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STEPStepStone Group Inc.Sell5.0·$44.36
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

StepStone Group is delivering 56% year-over-year earnings growth and ranks as an industry growth leader with analyst targets implying 54% upside, but the business currently fails the quality minimum threshold with a Piotroski F-Score of only 4/9 and is in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Quality Floor Piotroski→Stable
  • Exceptional Revenue Earnings Growth→Stable
  • Analyst Upside 54pct↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

StepStone Group Inc. (STEP) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.36: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

StepStone Group manages $233 billion in AUM and advises on $652 billion in AUA across private equity, infrastructure, private debt, and real estate globally, with offices in 31 cities across 19 countries. Management and advisory fees grew from $285 million in fiscal 2021 to $926... Read more

$44.36+36.4% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#197 of 236 Asset Management
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield50.21%
IncomeYield3.82%(5y avg 2.45%)Payout167.21%at-risk
Stop $41.87Target $60.51(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$69.56+56.8%9 analysts
$60.51our TP
$44.36price
$69.56mean
$92

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.36: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26

Recent Developments — StepStone Group Inc.

Generated 2026-09-26T04:01:58Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA-5.5
Profit Mgn-30.5%
ROE-61.4%
Rev Growth4.0%
Beta1.28
Dividend3.82%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop 10 clients17%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top 10 clients, which contribute to 65 separate mandates and commitments to commingled funds, comprise 17% of our total management and advisory fees.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -30.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
2.6
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
3.3
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.8
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.2
Growth Rank
5.2
Value Rank
8.6
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
29 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $43.17Resistance $52.45

Price Targets

$42
$61
A.Upside+36.4%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STEP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.36: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $41.87. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STEP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $60.51 (+36.4% upside). Prior stop was $41.87. Stop-loss: $41.87.

What are the risks of investing in STEP?

Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0).

Is STEP overvalued or undervalued?

StepStone Group Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STEP?

14 analysts cover STEP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $70.

What does StepStone Group Inc. do?StepStone Group manages $233 billion in AUM and advises on $652 billion in AUA across private equity, infrastructure,...

StepStone Group manages $233 billion in AUM and advises on $652 billion in AUA across private equity, infrastructure, private debt, and real estate globally, with offices in 31 cities across 19 countries. Management and advisory fees grew from $285 million in fiscal 2021 to $926 million in fiscal 2026, earned from 402 bespoke SMAs and commingled funds serving pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices.

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