Value
9.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
STEP · Why this verdict
Why StepStone Group (STEP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
StepStone currently scores only 4/9 on the Piotroski F-Score and fails the quality minimum threshold of 4.0, reflecting weak return on assets, minimal operating margins, and quality concerns flagged in the screening engine. Warnings | The Piotroski F-Score improves to at least 6/9 over the next 2 to 4 quarters as scaled revenues translate into improved profitability metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset management business models often show weak GAAP accounting metrics due to compensation structures and deferred revenue; the Piotroski score may be structurally depressed for legitimate business model reasons rather than operational weakness. | ||
StepStone is generating 56% year-over-year earnings growth and ranks as the industry growth leader within the asset management peer group, driven by strong fund-raising momentum in private markets. Peer-rank breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth both remain above 20% year-over-year for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the company's growth-leader positioning. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset management earnings are highly sensitive to fee-earning assets under management levels; a private markets fundraising slowdown or a risk-off environment could compress revenues sharply below current growth rates. | ||
Analyst consensus price targets imply approximately 54% upside from the current price of $47.05, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.10 suggesting the market significantly discounts the growth profile. Sentiment breakdown | The stock reaches $60 or more within 12 months as growth execution closes the gap to analyst consensus targets. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for small-cap asset managers with quality concerns embedded in the fundamental data carry high revision risk; a fundraising miss or market downturn could prompt widespread target cuts before the price target is reached. | ||
StepStone is trading below the 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at 2.3% per month, putting it in a confirmed downtrend despite the strong fundamental growth narrative. Momentum breakdown | Price closes above the 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least 30 consecutive days within the next 6 months, signaling trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock trades near a 52-week low with only 2.6 on the 52-week position score; in confirmed downtrends, growth narratives alone are frequently insufficient to reverse price action without institutional positioning change. | ||
StepStone currently scores only 4/9 on the Piotroski F-Score and fails the quality minimum threshold of 4.0, reflecting weak return on assets, minimal operating margins, and quality concerns flagged in the screening engine.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score improves to at least 6/9 over the next 2 to 4 quarters as scaled revenues translate into improved profitability metrics.
CounterAsset management business models often show weak GAAP accounting metrics due to compensation structures and deferred revenue; the Piotroski score may be structurally depressed for legitimate business model reasons rather than operational weakness.
StepStone is generating 56% year-over-year earnings growth and ranks as the industry growth leader within the asset management peer group, driven by strong fund-raising momentum in private markets.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth both remain above 20% year-over-year for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the company's growth-leader positioning.
CounterAsset management earnings are highly sensitive to fee-earning assets under management levels; a private markets fundraising slowdown or a risk-off environment could compress revenues sharply below current growth rates.
Analyst consensus price targets imply approximately 54% upside from the current price of $47.05, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.10 suggesting the market significantly discounts the growth profile.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches $60 or more within 12 months as growth execution closes the gap to analyst consensus targets.
CounterAnalyst targets for small-cap asset managers with quality concerns embedded in the fundamental data carry high revision risk; a fundraising miss or market downturn could prompt widespread target cuts before the price target is reached.
StepStone is trading below the 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at 2.3% per month, putting it in a confirmed downtrend despite the strong fundamental growth narrative.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes above the 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least 30 consecutive days within the next 6 months, signaling trend reversal.
CounterThe stock trades near a 52-week low with only 2.6 on the 52-week position score; in confirmed downtrends, growth narratives alone are frequently insufficient to reverse price action without institutional positioning change.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
StepStone Group is delivering 56% year-over-year earnings growth and ranks as an industry growth leader with analyst targets implying 54% upside, but the business currently fails the quality minimum threshold with a Piotroski F-Score of only 4/9 and is in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 56% YoY
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 9.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.6x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.45 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 76%
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 3.3 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,589,707 (0.089% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 9.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 0.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.25
- ▸High IV: 94%
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 406.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.93
Upside
+53.4%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.0, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 1.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, and Insider at 4.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year in any reported quarter over the next 12 months, signaling that growth-leader status is eroding.
- P2Below Quality Floor Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score remains below 5 for 3 or more consecutive quarters, indicating quality improvement is not materializing as revenues scale.
- P3Analyst Upside 54pct
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised down below $52, less than 11% above current price, indicating broad analyst confidence in the recovery has declined.
- P4Price Downtrend Below 200ma
Trip ifStock price drops below $42, more than 11% below the current $47.05, while the 200-day moving average slope accelerates to more than -3% per month.