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AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc.Buy Wait6.0·$80.88+0.81%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Acadian Asset Management exhibits high-quality financials — 143% free cash flow conversion and 39% year-over-year revenue growth — with a technically favorable risk/reward of 3.5-to-1 to the near-term resistance target, but the stock trades approximately 27.6% above analyst consensus and a 70% non-U.S. AUM concentration constitutes a geographic cliff that warrants only a small initial position while awaiting a pullback to a better entry level.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Cash Generative FranchiseStable
  • Industry Leading Revenue GrowthStable
  • Geographic Concentration Cliff RiskImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Acadian Asset Management Inc. (AAMI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 2 days (2026-07-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $70.81. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $80.88. Engine's entry $70.81 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%).

Acadian Asset Management Inc. is a holding company operating systematic investment management through Acadian Asset Management LLC, which managed approximately $178 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025, serving institutional clients across more than 40... Read more

$80.88-18.0% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#62 of 239 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.19%
IncomeYield0.49%(5y avg 0.17%)Payout5.53%sustainable
Entry $70.81(support + ATR (held))Stop $65.54Target $83.36(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$78.00-3.6%3 analysts
$83.36our TP
$80.88price
$78.00mean
$72
$84

Wait for pullback to $70.81. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $80.88. Engine's entry $70.81 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/9 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 2d<=7d and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 20262d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.4
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA19.9
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE111.7%
Rev Growth39.3%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.49%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV61%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProducttop-5 investment strategies46%
    10-K Item 1A: '$81 billion, or 46%, of our assets under management were concentrated across five investment strategies'
  • LOWCustomertop five client relationships14%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top five client relationships represented approximately 14% of total run rate gross management fee revenue'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop 25 client relationships33%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top 25 clients represented approximately 33% of run rate gross management fee revenue'
  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. denominated AUM70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 70% of our AUM is in non-US denominated currencies'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.2
Obv
1.5
Macd
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEINSIDER 5.33%=EXTREMEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 2d<=7dFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $69.92Resistance $85.06

Price Targets

$66
$71
$83
A.Upside-18.0%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.0% upside)
! Earnings in 2 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (2d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAMI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $70.81. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $80.88. Engine's entry $70.81 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $83.36 (+3.1%), stop $65.54 (−23.4%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AAMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.36 (-18.0% upside). Target $83.36 (+3.1%), stop $65.54 (−23.4%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $65.54.

What are the risks of investing in AAMI?

Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AAMI overvalued or undervalued?

Acadian Asset Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.4 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AAMI?

8 analysts cover AAMI with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $78.

What does Acadian Asset Management Inc. do?Acadian Asset Management Inc. is a holding company operating systematic investment management through Acadian Asset...

Acadian Asset Management Inc. is a holding company operating systematic investment management through Acadian Asset Management LLC, which managed approximately $178 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025, serving institutional clients across more than 40 countries. Management fees based on AUM values drive revenue; the institutional channel accounts for over 80% of AUM, with sub-advisory and wealth channels representing nearly 20%.

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