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AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc.Hold6.2·$94.05
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Acadian Asset Management exhibits high-quality financials — 143% free cash flow conversion and 39% year-over-year revenue growth — with a technically favorable risk/reward of 3.5-to-1 to the near-term resistance target, but the stock trades approximately 27.6% above analyst consensus and a 70% non-U.S. AUM concentration constitutes a geographic cliff that warrants only a small initial position while awaiting a pullback to a better entry level.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Cash Generative Franchise→Stable
  • Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Geographic Concentration Cliff Risk↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Acadian Asset Management Inc. (AAMI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $94.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%).

Acadian Asset Management Inc. is a holding company operating systematic investment management through Acadian Asset Management LLC, which managed approximately $178 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025, serving institutional clients across more than 40... Read more

$94.05-22.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#45 of 236 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield6.98%
IncomeYield0.44%(5y avg 0.17%)Payout7.77%sustainable
Stop $87.67Target $96.44(resistance)A.R:R -2.5:1
Analyst target$86.33-8.2%3 analysts
$96.44our TP
$94.05price
$86.33mean
$80
$98

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $94.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.4
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA20.4
Profit Mgn15.2%
ROE106.8%
Rev Growth45.3%
Beta1.31
Dividend0.44%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.19bearish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProducttop-5 investment strategies46%
    10-K Item 1A: '$81 billion, or 46%, of our assets under management were concentrated across five investment strategies'
  • LOWCustomertop five client relationships14%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top five client relationships represented approximately 14% of total run rate gross management fee revenue'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop 25 client relationships33%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top 25 clients represented approximately 33% of run rate gross management fee revenue'
  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. denominated AUM70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 70% of our AUM is in non-US denominated currencies'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -2.5=NEGATIVEFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $85.60Resistance $98.41

Price Targets

$88
$96
A.Upside-22.0%
A.R:R-2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.0% upside)
! News modifier suppressed: positive news (+2) cannot lift HOLD to buy-class with analyst upside -22.0% (lift floor +1.5%)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAMI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $94.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $96.44 (+2.5%), stop $87.67 (−7.3%), A.R:R -2.5:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AAMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $96.44 (-22.0% upside). Target $96.44 (+2.5%), stop $87.67 (−7.3%), A.R:R -2.5:1. Stop-loss: $87.67.

What are the risks of investing in AAMI?

Single-region cliff: 70% exposure to non-U.S. denominated AUM (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. denominated AUM (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AAMI overvalued or undervalued?

Acadian Asset Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.4 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AAMI?

8 analysts cover AAMI with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $86.

What does Acadian Asset Management Inc. do?Acadian Asset Management Inc. is a holding company operating systematic investment management through Acadian Asset...

Acadian Asset Management Inc. is a holding company operating systematic investment management through Acadian Asset Management LLC, which managed approximately $178 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025, serving institutional clients across more than 40 countries. Management fees based on AUM values drive revenue; the institutional channel accounts for over 80% of AUM, with sub-advisory and wealth channels representing nearly 20%.

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