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Sonoco Products Company (SON) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. At $49.19, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Sonoco Products is a global packaging manufacturer with two core segments (Consumer Packaging ~65% of 2025 net sales, Industrial Paper Packaging), operating ~265 facilities in 37 countries following the December 2024 acquisition of Eviosys (European metal food cans). Products... Read more

$49.19+8.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#4 of 16 Packaging & Containers
Stop $45.76Target $53.46(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$61.44+24.9%9 analysts
$53.46our TP
$49.19price
$61.44mean
$65

Sell if holding. At $49.19, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 46%
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.7%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.0
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA7.6
Profit Mgn13.6%
ROE20.1%
Rev Growth-1.9%
Beta0.49
Dividend4.33%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV47%normal
Max Pain$40-18.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicinternational operations (52% of sales)52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 52% of consolidated sales came from operations outside of the United States, reflecting the significant expansion of our international operations with the December 2024 acquisition of Eviosys'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    COO Rodger Fuller retirement date amended from Feb 28 to April 11, 2026. No successor named in this filing. No disagreement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Craig L. Nix appointed to Sonoco Board as independent director, effective February 10, 2026. Assigned to Audit and Financial Policy Committees. No departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.4
Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $46.45Resistance $57.84

Price Targets

$46
$53
A.Upside+8.7%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $49.19, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $45.76. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.46 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $45.76. Stop-loss: $45.76.

What are the risks of investing in SON?

Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SON overvalued or undervalued?

Sonoco Products Company trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SON?

15 analysts cover SON with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Sonoco Products Company do?Sonoco Products is a global packaging manufacturer with two core segments (Consumer Packaging ~65% of 2025 net sales,...

Sonoco Products is a global packaging manufacturer with two core segments (Consumer Packaging ~65% of 2025 net sales, Industrial Paper Packaging), operating ~265 facilities in 37 countries following the December 2024 acquisition of Eviosys (European metal food cans). Products include metal food cans, paper tubes, composite cans, and protective packaging.

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