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Sonoco Products Company (SON) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $46.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: metal cans (45.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).

Sonoco Products is a global packaging manufacturer with two segments: Consumer Packaging (65% of 2025 net sales; metal cans, rigid paper containers, plastic) and Industrial Paper Packaging (30%; tubes, cores, paperboard). The company serves consumer staples, industrial, and... Read more

$46.36+14.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield18.08%
IncomeYield4.59%(5y avg 3.65%)Payout34.70%sustainable
Stop $44.53Target $52.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$60.89+31.3%9 analysts
$52.97our TP
$46.36price
$60.89mean
$65

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $46.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: metal cans (45.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Sonoco Products Company

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 49%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: metal cans (45.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.6
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA7.5
Profit Mgn13.6%
ROE20.1%
Rev Growth-1.9%
Beta0.39
Dividend4.59%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV35%normal
Max Pain$30-35.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductmetal cans45%
    10-K Item 1: 'metal cans and rigid paper containers were the Company's largest revenue-producing groups of products and services representing approximately 45% and 20%, respectively, of the Company's consolidated net sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Amendment to earlier 8-K: COO Rodger Fuller's retirement effective date changed from February 28, 2026 to April 11, 2026. He is retiring; no successor named in this filing. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Craig L. Nix appointed to Board of Directors as independent director, effective February 10, 2026; assigned to Audit Committee and Financial Policy Committee. Former CFO/COO of Deloitte. Routine board expansion.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $45.91Resistance $52.37

Price Targets

$45
$53
A.Upside+14.3%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $46.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: metal cans (45.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $44.53. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the SON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.97 (+14.3% upside). Prior stop was $44.53. Stop-loss: $44.53.

What are the risks of investing in SON?

Concentration risk — Product: metal cans (45.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is SON overvalued or undervalued?

Sonoco Products Company trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SON?

17 analysts cover SON with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Sonoco Products Company do?Sonoco Products is a global packaging manufacturer with two segments: Consumer Packaging (65% of 2025 net sales; metal...

Sonoco Products is a global packaging manufacturer with two segments: Consumer Packaging (65% of 2025 net sales; metal cans, rigid paper containers, plastic) and Industrial Paper Packaging (30%; tubes, cores, paperboard). The company serves consumer staples, industrial, and construction markets through approximately 265 facilities in 37 countries; no single customer exceeded 10% of consolidated revenues in 2025.

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