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NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.63: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

NuScale Power develops proprietary small modular reactor (SMR) technology based on its NRC-approved 77 MWe NuScale Power Module. The company has received over $578M in DOE funding and holds 513 patents globally. It has one active customer (RoPower in Romania) and one strategic... Read more

$11.63+43.9% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#44 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
Stop $10.88Target $16.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$19.36+66.4%14 analysts
$16.84our TP
$11.63price
$19.36mean
$52

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.63: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: RoPower
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-26.4
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA-12.7
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-84.8%
Rev Growth-94.7%
Beta2.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV120%elevated
Max Pain$5-57.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerRoPower
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company has been working with one customer and one prospective customer. The customer is RoPower Nuclear S.A. ("RoPower")'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-26Item 1.02MEDIUM
    NuScale terminated prior ATM equity offering Sales Agreement concurrent with entering a new Sales Agreement for up to $1B in Class A common stock with UBS, B. Riley, Canaccord, and Tuohy Brothers.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-26Item 1.01LOW
    NuScale entered new ATM Sales Agreement with UBS, B. Riley, Canaccord, and Tuohy Brothers for up to $1B in Class A common stock, replacing prior ATM program.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 7 days

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
3.3
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.7
No competitive moat

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.9
Ma Position
4.0
Macd
8.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.1
Support Resistance
4.7
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.85Resistance $14.20

Price Targets

$11
$17
A.Upside+44.8%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.63: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $10.88. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.84 (+43.9% upside). Prior stop was $10.88. Stop-loss: $10.88.

What are the risks of investing in SMR?

Concentration risk — Customer: RoPower; Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is SMR overvalued or undervalued?

NuScale Power Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -26.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMR?

21 analysts cover SMR with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $19.

What does NuScale Power Corporation do?NuScale Power develops proprietary small modular reactor (SMR) technology based on its NRC-approved 77 MWe NuScale...

NuScale Power develops proprietary small modular reactor (SMR) technology based on its NRC-approved 77 MWe NuScale Power Module. The company has received over $578M in DOE funding and holds 513 patents globally. It has one active customer (RoPower in Romania) and one strategic partner (ENTRA1); no NPM revenue has been recognized.

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