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SMRNuScale Power CorporationSell4.9·$8.11+0.25%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NuScale Power is a pre-revenue small modular reactor developer burning cash at 868% of revenue with a hard momentum block and 20% short interest, while analyst targets imply 44% upside driven by its concentrated customer relationship with RoPower and ENTRA1 — a high-risk speculative position with no near-term earnings floor.

Thesis pillars

  • Smr Analyst Target Upside GapDeteriorating
  • Ropower Entra1 Concentration RiskImproving
  • Cash Burn Quality Floor FailureStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5ShortModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

NuScale Power Corporation develops small modular reactor technology based on its NuScale Power Module (NPM), which generates 77 MWe; the NRC granted a Standard Design Approval for the 6-unit 77 MWe design in May 2025. The company has not entered into any binding contract to... Read more

$8.11+61.0% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#49 of 58 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-5.78%
Stop $7.57Target $13.11(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$14.57+79.6%15 analysts
$13.11our TP
$8.11price
$14.57mean
$6
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About NuScale Power Corporation

About NuScale Power Corporation

NuScale Power Corporation's 6-unit 77 MWe NPM design received NRC Standard Design Approval in May 2025, the company's second SDA following its September 2020 approval for a 12-module 50 MWe design, making NuScale the only SMR developer with any NRC-approved design. Since 2007, more than $1.8 billion has been invested in NuScale technology, including $578.3 million from the DOE. The company holds 513 issued patents globally with 268 additional patent applications pending.

NuScale intends to sell NPMs and a recurring suite of services — licensing support, testing, training, fuel supply, and program management — expected to begin generating revenue approximately five years before a plant's commercial operation date. Potential customers include governments, utilities, state-owned enterprises, and technology companies. Long-lead manufacturing for the first 12 NPM upper reactor vessels has been placed with Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd. in South Korea, with forgings, tubing, and weld materials in production. NuScale's exclusive global commercialization and marketing partner is ENTRA1, which is in negotiations with the Tennessee Valley Authority to deploy up to six 12-module plants in TVA's seven-state region. Fluor Corporation is also a strategic investor and partner in the commercialization effort. The company has not yet entered into any binding delivery contract.

Show full overview

NuScale faces competition from nuclear reactor developers in China and Russia that already operate commercial SMRs, which could give those competitors marketing advantages in third-country markets, particularly given U.S. nuclear technology export licensing requirements under section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act. Within the United States, NuScale's NRC-approved designs hold a regulatory head start, but the 10-K notes that competing technologies — water-cooled SMRs, fast neutron reactors, high-temperature gas reactors, and molten salt reactors — are all under development. The company's only formal customer is RoPower Nuclear S.A. in Romania, with no binding contract yet signed.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

From NuScale Power Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 20269d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: RoPower
Concentration risk — Counterparty: ENTRA1
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-11.3
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA-9.1
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-83.0%
Rev Growth-95.8%
Beta2.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV115%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerRoPower
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company has been working with one customer and one prospective customer. The customer is RoPower Nuclear S.A.'
  • HIGHcounterpartyENTRA1
    10-K Item 1: 'ENTRA1, is NuScale’s exclusive global strategic partner for commercialization and development of power plants utilizing NPMs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.8
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.0
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -868% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -20.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MEarnings in 9 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
Conservative debt levels
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.21Resistance $10.87

Price Targets

$8
$13
A.Upside+61.0%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-33.7% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -149.5%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.23% of cap)
! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Prior stop was $7.57. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.11 (+61.0% upside). Prior stop was $7.57. Stop-loss: $7.57.

What are the risks of investing in SMR?

Concentration risk — Customer: RoPower; Concentration risk — Counterparty: ENTRA1; Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is SMR overvalued or undervalued?

NuScale Power Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMR?

22 analysts cover SMR with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $15.

What does NuScale Power Corporation do?NuScale Power Corporation develops small modular reactor technology based on its NuScale Power Module (NPM), which...

NuScale Power Corporation develops small modular reactor technology based on its NuScale Power Module (NPM), which generates 77 MWe; the NRC granted a Standard Design Approval for the 6-unit 77 MWe design in May 2025. The company has not entered into any binding contract to deliver NPMs; it works with one customer (RoPower Nuclear in Romania) and ENTRA1 as exclusive global commercialization partner, supported by over $1.8 billion in cumulative investment since 2007 including $578.3 million from the DOE.

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