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NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.29: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

NuScale Power develops proprietary small modular reactor (SMR) technology centered on its 77 MWe NuScale Power Module, which received NRC design approval in 2020 and 2025. The company is pre-revenue with one active customer (RoPower in Romania) and one prospective strategic... Read more

$10.29+39.3% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#44 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-4.65%
Stop $9.59Target $14.36(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$16.50+60.3%14 analysts
$14.36our TP
$10.29price
$16.50mean
$7
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.29: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — NuScale Power Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: RoPower
Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-17.3
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA-12.5
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-83.0%
Rev Growth-95.8%
Beta2.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV102%elevated
Max Pain$1-90.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerRoPower
    10-K Item 1: 'the Company has been working with one customer and one prospective customer. The customer is RoPower Nuclear S.A.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-26Item 1.01LOW
    NuScale entered into a Sales Agreement with UBS, B. Riley, Canaccord, and Tuohy Brothers for an at-the-market offering program to sell up to $1 billion in Class A common stock. Routine capital raise; no reason cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-26Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Termination of a prior material definitive agreement reported simultaneously with new Sales Agreement. Full termination details not available in retrieved body; presumed prior ATM or financing arrangement replaced.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -16.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.8
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -868% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.66Resistance $14.20

Price Targets

$10
$14
A.Upside+39.6%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.29: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $9.59. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.36 (+39.3% upside). Prior stop was $9.59. Stop-loss: $9.59.

What are the risks of investing in SMR?

Concentration risk — Customer: RoPower; Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).

Is SMR overvalued or undervalued?

NuScale Power Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMR?

22 analysts cover SMR with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $17.

What does NuScale Power Corporation do?NuScale Power develops proprietary small modular reactor (SMR) technology centered on its 77 MWe NuScale Power Module,...

NuScale Power develops proprietary small modular reactor (SMR) technology centered on its 77 MWe NuScale Power Module, which received NRC design approval in 2020 and 2025. The company is pre-revenue with one active customer (RoPower in Romania) and one prospective strategic partner (ENTRA1); over $1.8B has been invested in development since 2007, including $578M from DOE.

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