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Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.86: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.55; Below-average business quality.

Summit Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing ivonescimab, a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody licensed from Akeso, for NSCLC and colorectal cancer globally. The company submitted a BLA in Q4 2025 with an FDA PDUFA date of November 14, 2026; it... Read more

$15.86+62.0% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#129 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield0.56%
Stop $14.74Target $25.67(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$29.50+86.0%13 analysts
$25.67our TP
$15.86price
$29.50mean
$12
$44

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.86: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.55; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Summit Therapeutics Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: ivonescimab
Concentration risk — Supplier: Akeso
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-14.0
Mkt Cap$12.4B
EV/EBITDA-9.7
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-271.0%
Rev Growth
Beta-1.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C3.55bearish
IV152%elevated
Max Pain$5-68.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineivonescimab
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend heavily on the success of ivonescimab. If we are unable to successfully develop and commercialize ivonescimab'
  • HIGHSupplierAkeso
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on the use of third parties, including Akeso, to manufacture our product candidate.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Volatile — 9.4% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
1.3
Debt Equity
1.3
Days To Cover
2.7
Max Pain Risk
3.0
High short interest justified: 22%Elevated put/call: 3.55High IV: 152%Above max pain $5Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
5.6
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.14Resistance $26.77

Price Targets

$15
$26
A.Upside+61.9%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMMT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.86: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.55; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $14.74. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.67 (+62.0% upside). Prior stop was $14.74. Stop-loss: $14.74.

What are the risks of investing in SMMT?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: ivonescimab; Concentration risk — Supplier: Akeso; Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is SMMT overvalued or undervalued?

Summit Therapeutics Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMMT?

24 analysts cover SMMT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Summit Therapeutics Inc. do?Summit Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing ivonescimab, a PD-1/VEGF bispecific...

Summit Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing ivonescimab, a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody licensed from Akeso, for NSCLC and colorectal cancer globally. The company submitted a BLA in Q4 2025 with an FDA PDUFA date of November 14, 2026; it generates no product revenue and funds operations through equity issuances.

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