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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.25: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.72; Below-average business quality.

Cleveland-Cliffs is a North America-based steel producer employing approximately 25,000 people, vertically integrated from iron ore mining and HBI production through primary steelmaking, finishing, stamping, and tubing. It is a leading supplier of automotive-grade flat-rolled... Read more

$10.25+4.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#9 of 10 Steel
Stop $9.50Target $10.71(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$10.67+4.1%9 analysts
$10.71our TP
$10.25price
$10.67mean
$8
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.25: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.72; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-9.2% upside)
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)23.6
Mkt Cap$5.8B
EV/EBITDA75.3
Profit Mgn-6.4%
ROE-18.6%
Rev Growth6.3%
Beta1.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.72bearish
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerautomotive industry
    10-K Item 1A: 'The largest end user for our steel products is the automotive industry in North America'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02LOW
    Lead Director Douglas Taylor resigned Feb 22, 2026 due to change in primary occupation per governance guidelines; no disagreement cited. Ralph Michael III appointed Lead Director.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
7.1
Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.9
52w Position
2.2
Support Resistance
2.5

Volatile — 5.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.6
Put Call
1.9
Short Interest
2.6
Beta
3.6
Debt Equity
4.4
Days To Cover
5.5
Elevated put/call: 1.72High IV: 76%
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.05Resistance $10.93

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+4.5%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CLF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.25: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.72; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Prior stop was $9.50. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CLF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.71 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $9.50. Stop-loss: $9.50.

What are the risks of investing in CLF?

Target reached (-9.2% upside); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is CLF overvalued or undervalued?

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 23.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CLF?

22 analysts cover CLF with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. do?Cleveland-Cliffs is a North America-based steel producer employing approximately 25,000 people, vertically integrated...

Cleveland-Cliffs is a North America-based steel producer employing approximately 25,000 people, vertically integrated from iron ore mining and HBI production through primary steelmaking, finishing, stamping, and tubing. It is a leading supplier of automotive-grade flat-rolled steel in the U.S., with the automotive sector as its largest end market.

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