Three consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 15% above estimates demonstrate improving operational discipline, but the stock already trades well above analyst consensus and free cash flow remains negative, making the risk/reward unfavorable for new buyers at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Price Exceeds Analyst Consensus→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance→Stable
- Negative Cash Flow No Moat↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Basic Materials · Steel
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.99: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality.
Cleveland-Cliffs is a vertically integrated North America-based steel producer employing approximately 25,000 people across the U.S. and Canada, selling primarily to automotive (30% of 2025 revenues), infrastructure/manufacturing (29%), distributors (28%), and steel producers... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.99: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(6), earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS This Dover Analyst Turns Bulish; Here Are Top 5 Upgrades For Friday — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 positive
- NEWS GLJ Research Upgrades Cleveland-Cliffs to Buy, Raises Price Target to $15.6 — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 positive
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Underweight on Cleveland-Cliffs, Raises Price Target to $10 — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Booz Allen Hamilton Posts Upbeat Q1 Earnings, Joins Tenet Healthcare, SS&C Technologies And Other Big Stocks Moving High — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Cleveland-Cliffs, Raises Price Target to $11 — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T11:13:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerdirect automotive30%10-K Item 1: 'Direct automotive ... 30 | %'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.99: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $11.09. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $11.81 (-17.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.09. Stop-loss: $11.09.
Target reached (-17.2% upside); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-8.4% YoY), High leverage (D/E 2.8).
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 28.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover CLF with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. do?Cleveland-Cliffs is a vertically integrated North America-based steel producer employing approximately 25,000 people...
Cleveland-Cliffs is a vertically integrated North America-based steel producer employing approximately 25,000 people across the U.S. and Canada, selling primarily to automotive (30% of 2025 revenues), infrastructure/manufacturing (29%), distributors (28%), and steel producers (13%). Roughly 35-40% of flat-rolled shipments sell under fixed-price contracts; the remainder at spot or index-linked prices.