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ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc.Hold3.8·$3.66+1.95%
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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

HoldShortHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $3.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $382M below $400M minimum.

Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for... Read more

$3.66+42.5% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#14 of 14 Steel
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-70.85%
Stop $3.40Target $5.16(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $3.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $382M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Market cap $382M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $382M below $400M minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-12.8
Mkt Cap$382M
EV/EBITDA-2.8
Profit Mgn-60.0%
ROE-122.4%
Rev Growth-42.6%
Beta1.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV153%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -42.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -43%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
2.5
Current Ratio
8.3
Cash-burning: FCF -14% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
6.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.6
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 18, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
18 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.50Resistance $5.27

Price Targets

$3
$5
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $382M below $400M minimum
! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASTL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $3.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $382M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Market cap $382M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $5.16 (+41.0%), stop $3.40 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the ASTL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.16 (+42.5% upside). Target $5.16 (+41.0%), stop $3.40 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $3.40.

What are the risks of investing in ASTL?

Market cap $382M below $400M minimum.

Is ASTL overvalued or undervalued?

Algoma Steel Group Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 10.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ASTL?

6 analysts cover ASTL with a consensus score of 2.2/5.

What does Algoma Steel Group Inc. do?Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The...

Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for the automotive industry, hollow structural tube product manufacturers, and the light manufacturing and transportation industries; and plate steel products consisting of rolled, hot-rolled, and heat-treated for use in the construction or manufacture of railcars, buildings, bridges, off-highway equipment, storage tanks, ships, armored products for military applications, diameter pipelines, and wind energy generation equipment. It also provides by-products, such as furnace and buckwheat coke, braize coke, and flue dust; high sulpur beach and kish iron, BOF pit grissly and scrap, BOF and pellet fines, and mill roll scale; light oil and coal tar; granulated and air cooled slag; and machine shop turnings, used mill rolls, recycled oil, non-ferrous metal, and lime fines. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Sault Sainte Marie, Canada.

Related stocks: NWPX (NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.) · MTUS (Metallus Inc.) · WS (Worthington Steel, Inc.) · SID (Companhia Siderurgica Nacional )
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