Value
7.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
SID · Why this verdict
Why Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is exhibiting a falling-knife technical pattern with a death cross, all key moving averages above the current price, RSI at 39, and a confirmed downtrend, meaning momentum indicators offer no technical support for near-term recovery. V9 | Price rises above the 50-day moving average and holds there for at least 15 trading days, with RSI exceeding 45, indicating the falling trend has stabilized. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume despite the price decline suggests some accumulation may be occurring, which could precede a technical reversal. | ||
At the current price of $1.22, the analyst consensus target has been exceeded with negative 14.1% implied upside and asymmetry ratio of negative 1.06, meaning the stock trades above where analysts believe fair value lies. Warnings | Analyst price targets rise to at least $1.45, more than 19% above current levels, before the stock can be considered attractively valued relative to consensus. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage may be thin or stale, and with only a value score of 5.5 driven by attractive EV/EBITDA and price-to-sales, a re-rating could occur independently of analyst revisions. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in all four of the last four reported quarters, with an average negative surprise of negative 139%, indicating a structural gap between analyst expectations and actual business performance. Earnings | EPS surprise improves to above negative 20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, suggesting the worst of earnings delivery failures is passing. | →Stable |
| CounterSeveral quarters had negative estimate baselines, meaning even small losses versus low expectations qualify as misses; the bar for a positive surprise is not as high as the headline miss rate implies. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 reflects broad weakness across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency indicators, classifying the company as a financially distressed steel producer with negative free cash flow equal to 5% of revenue. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score rises above 4 within two annual reporting periods, showing meaningful improvement in at least profitability metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterSteel companies in commodity downturns frequently show depressed Piotroski scores temporarily; a commodity price recovery could rapidly improve margins and restore multiple indicators. | ||
The stock is exhibiting a falling-knife technical pattern with a death cross, all key moving averages above the current price, RSI at 39, and a confirmed downtrend, meaning momentum indicators offer no technical support for near-term recovery.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 50-day moving average and holds there for at least 15 trading days, with RSI exceeding 45, indicating the falling trend has stabilized.
CounterRising on-balance volume despite the price decline suggests some accumulation may be occurring, which could precede a technical reversal.
At the current price of $1.22, the analyst consensus target has been exceeded with negative 14.1% implied upside and asymmetry ratio of negative 1.06, meaning the stock trades above where analysts believe fair value lies.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets rise to at least $1.45, more than 19% above current levels, before the stock can be considered attractively valued relative to consensus.
CounterAnalyst coverage may be thin or stale, and with only a value score of 5.5 driven by attractive EV/EBITDA and price-to-sales, a re-rating could occur independently of analyst revisions.
The company has missed earnings estimates in all four of the last four reported quarters, with an average negative surprise of negative 139%, indicating a structural gap between analyst expectations and actual business performance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise improves to above negative 20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, suggesting the worst of earnings delivery failures is passing.
CounterSeveral quarters had negative estimate baselines, meaning even small losses versus low expectations qualify as misses; the bar for a positive surprise is not as high as the headline miss rate implies.
A Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 reflects broad weakness across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency indicators, classifying the company as a financially distressed steel producer with negative free cash flow equal to 5% of revenue.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score rises above 4 within two annual reporting periods, showing meaningful improvement in at least profitability metrics.
CounterSteel companies in commodity downturns frequently show depressed Piotroski scores temporarily; a commodity price recovery could rapidly improve margins and restore multiple indicators.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional scores below the minimum quality threshold with a Piotroski F-Score of only 2/9, four consecutive earnings misses, and a confirmed falling-knife chart pattern, presenting a fundamentally challenged risk profile with no discernible near-term catalyst for reversal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -5% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 3.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 1.8 |
- ▸High IV: 117%
Catalyst
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.80
Upside
+9.4%
Downside
11.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 20, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -56% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Sentiment at 5.8, and Insider at 5.0; the weakest are Quality at 1.4, Growth at 1.8, and Catalyst at 2.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.80 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Persistent Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 50% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the miss streak is worsening rather than stabilizing.
- P2Weak Piotroski Financial Health
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue drops below negative 10%, indicating the cash-burn rate is increasing beyond current negative 5% levels.
- P3Falling Knife Chart Pattern
Trip ifStock price drops below $1.10, more than 9% below current price of $1.22, confirming the falling-knife pattern is accelerating.
- P4Analyst Target Exceeded Downside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $1.00, more than 18% below current levels, indicating analysts are reducing expectations further.