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NewMarket Corp (NEU) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $678.96 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.

NewMarket is a specialty chemicals holding company whose Afton Chemical subsidiary manufactures lubricant and fuel additives worldwide; AMPAC and Calca produce solid rocket motor specialty materials and hydrazine for aerospace/defense. International sales were 61% of... Read more

$678.96+0.8% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#25 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
Stop $636.16Target $689.72(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $678.96 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 97d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Weak overall score: 4.8/10
Weak growth
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.3
P/E (Fwd)25.9
Mkt Cap$6.2B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE25.3%
Rev Growth-4.5%
Beta0.50
Dividend1.76%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomersignificant customers in lubricant and fuel industries
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a small number of significant customers concentrated in the lubricant and fuel industries. The loss of sales to any of these customers could significantly reduce our revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
    Bruce R. Hazelgrove III elected to NewMarket Board effective February 26, 2026. He serves as EVP and Chief Administrative Officer; no additional director compensation.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02LOW
    Susan M. Ridlehoover appointed as Principal Accounting Officer of NewMarket effective February 18, 2026. Base salary $235,000. Previously Controller since January 2026. No predecessor departure cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
1.0
Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.7
Support Resistance
2.1
52w Position
5.8
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 97d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $607.58Resistance $703.80

Price Targets

$636
$690
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (97d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $678.96 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $636.16. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $689.72 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $636.16. Stop-loss: $636.16.

What are the risks of investing in NEU?

Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth; Below 200-day MA.

Is NEU overvalued or undervalued?

NewMarket Corp trades at a P/E of 15.3 (forward 25.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NEU?

8 analysts cover NEU with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does NewMarket Corp do?NewMarket is a specialty chemicals holding company whose Afton Chemical subsidiary manufactures lubricant and fuel...

NewMarket is a specialty chemicals holding company whose Afton Chemical subsidiary manufactures lubricant and fuel additives worldwide; AMPAC and Calca produce solid rocket motor specialty materials and hydrazine for aerospace/defense. International sales were 61% of consolidated net sales in 2025.

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