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SFLSFL Corporation LtdSell4.9·$13.05
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

SFL Corporation is a marine shipping company with exceptional cash conversion (607% free cash flow relative to net income) and a strong recent earnings beat streak, but declining revenues, high leverage, and a price already above analyst targets create a structurally unfavorable risk profile.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
  • Revenue Decline Value Trap Signals↓Deteriorating
  • Strong Earnings Beats Despite Challenges↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

SFL Corporation Ltd (SFL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Industrials · Marine Shipping

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.05 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

SFL Corporation Ltd., a maritime and offshore asset owning and chartering company, engages in the ownership, operation, and chartering out of vessels and offshore related assets on medium and long-term charters. The company operates in various sectors of the maritime, and... Read more

$13.05-14.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#19 of 20 Marine Shipping
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.94%
IncomeYield6.48%(5y avg 8.65%)Payout172.63%at-risk
Stop $12.23Target $13.70(resistance)A.R:R -2.3:1
Analyst target$13.17+0.9%3 analysts
$13.70our TP
$13.05price
$13.17mean
$13
$14

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.05 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15

Recent Developments — SFL Corporation Ltd

Generated 2026-10-15T11:52:21Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.3
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn9.0%
ROE6.2%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta0.46
Dividend6.48%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.71bearish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
2.5

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
3.2
Volume
3.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -2.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.46Resistance $13.98

Price Targets

$12
$14
A.Upside-14.2%
A.R:R-2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.2% upside)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.05 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.23. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the SFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.70 (-14.2% upside). Prior stop was $12.23. Stop-loss: $12.23.

What are the risks of investing in SFL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is SFL overvalued or undervalued?

SFL Corporation Ltd trades at a P/E of 28.3 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SFL?

9 analysts cover SFL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $13.

What does SFL Corporation Ltd do?SFL Corporation Ltd., a maritime and offshore asset owning and chartering company, engages in the ownership, operation,...

SFL Corporation Ltd., a maritime and offshore asset owning and chartering company, engages in the ownership, operation, and chartering out of vessels and offshore related assets on medium and long-term charters. The company operates in various sectors of the maritime, and shipping and offshore industries, including oil transportation, dry bulk shipments, oil products transportation, container transportation, car transportation, and drilling rigs. As of December 31, 2025, the company owned 17 tankers, two dry bulk carriers, 21 container vessels, seven car carriers, and two drilling rigs. It primarily operates in Bermuda, Canada, Cyprus, Liberia, Namibia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the Marshall Islands. SFL Corporation Ltd. was formerly known as Ship Finance International Limited and changed its name to SFL Corporation Ltd. in September 2019. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Related stocks: ASC (Ardmore Shipping Corporation) · HAFN (Hafnia Limited) · NMM (Navios Maritime Partners LP) · HSHP (Himalaya Shipping Ltd.) · SBLK (Star Bulk Carriers Corp.)
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