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SFLSFL Corporation LtdSell5.3·$11.72
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

SFL Corporation is a marine shipping company with exceptional cash conversion (607% free cash flow relative to net income) and a strong recent earnings beat streak, but declining revenues, high leverage, and a price already above analyst targets create a structurally unfavorable risk profile.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
  • Revenue Decline Value Trap Signals↓Deteriorating
  • Strong Earnings Beats Despite Challenges↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

SFL Corporation Ltd (SFL) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthHigh Confidence

Industrials · Marine Shipping

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $11.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

SFL Corporation Ltd., a maritime and offshore asset owning and chartering company, engages in the ownership, operation, and chartering out of vessels and offshore related assets on medium and long-term charters. The company operates in various sectors of the maritime, and... Read more

$11.72-4.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#19 of 20 Marine Shipping
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield10.36%
IncomeYield7.14%(5y avg 8.64%)Payout172.63%at-risk
Stop $11.15Analyst target $11.19(reached)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst consensus$13.17+12.3%3 analysts with price targets
$11.72price
$13.17mean
$14

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $11.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — SFL Corporation Ltd

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:13Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 30%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)18.4
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn9.0%
ROE6.2%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta0.52
Dividend7.14%
Analysts with ratings9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
2.8

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.50Resistance $13.82

Price Targets

A.Upside-4.5%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $11.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.15. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the SFL stock price target?

Analyst target $11.19 reached (−4.5% from $11.72); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $11.15. Stop-loss: $11.15.

What are the risks of investing in SFL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is SFL overvalued or undervalued?

SFL Corporation Ltd trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SFL?

9 analysts rate SFL, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $13.

What does SFL Corporation Ltd do?SFL Corporation Ltd., a maritime and offshore asset owning and chartering company, engages in the ownership, operation,...

SFL Corporation Ltd., a maritime and offshore asset owning and chartering company, engages in the ownership, operation, and chartering out of vessels and offshore related assets on medium and long-term charters. The company operates in various sectors of the maritime, and shipping and offshore industries, including oil transportation, dry bulk shipments, oil products transportation, container transportation, car transportation, and drilling rigs. As of December 31, 2025, the company owned 17 tankers, two dry bulk carriers, 21 container vessels, seven car carriers, and two drilling rigs. It primarily operates in Bermuda, Canada, Cyprus, Liberia, Namibia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the Marshall Islands. SFL Corporation Ltd. was formerly known as Ship Finance International Limited and changed its name to SFL Corporation Ltd. in September 2019. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Related stocks: HAFN (Hafnia Limited) · HSHP (Himalaya Shipping Ltd.) · NMM (Navios Maritime Partners LP) · SBLK (Star Bulk Carriers Corp.) · SB (Safe Bulkers, Inc)
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