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ASCArdmore Shipping CorporationHold7.1·$17.61
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ardmore Shipping combines a perfect earnings beat streak and cheap valuation with a failed momentum gate, notable insider selling, and earnings-quality flags that keep the risk/reward thin despite an upcoming catalyst.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Streak Cheap ValuationStable
  • Failed Momentum GateImproving
  • Insider Selling Value Trap FlagImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Marine Shipping

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~67% (cyclical peak); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Ardmore Shipping Corporation engages in the seaborne transportation of petroleum products and chemicals worldwide. The company's fleet consists of 26 vessels, including 25 owned Eco-design vessels and one chartered-in vessels. It serves oil majors, national oil companies, oil... Read more

$17.61-1.1% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#2 of 19 Marine Shipping
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-1.78%
IncomeYield7.37%Payout25.29%sustainable
Stop $16.47Target $18.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$20.50+16.4%2 analysts
$18.98our TP
$17.61price
$20.50mean
$21

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~67% (cyclical peak); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~67% (cyclical peak)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.2
P/E (Fwd)21.7
Mkt Cap$726M
EV/EBITDA5.0
Profit Mgn29.7%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth61.3%
Beta0.02
Dividend7.37%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV53%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.2
Volume
1.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.12Resistance $19.37

Price Targets

$16
$19
A.Upside-1.1%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 22x vs trail 7x (3.0x)
! Target reached (-1.1% upside)
! News modifier suppressed: positive news (+2) cannot lift HOLD to buy-class with analyst upside -1.1% (lift floor +1.5%)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~67% (cyclical peak); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $18.98 (+7.8%), stop $16.47 (−6.9%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.98 (-1.1% upside). Target $18.98 (+7.8%), stop $16.47 (−6.9%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $16.47.

What are the risks of investing in ASC?

Earnings expected to decline ~67% (cyclical peak); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is ASC overvalued or undervalued?

Ardmore Shipping Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.2 (forward 21.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ASC?

7 analysts cover ASC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Ardmore Shipping Corporation do?Ardmore Shipping Corporation engages in the seaborne transportation of petroleum products and chemicals worldwide. The...

Ardmore Shipping Corporation engages in the seaborne transportation of petroleum products and chemicals worldwide. The company's fleet consists of 26 vessels, including 25 owned Eco-design vessels and one chartered-in vessels. It serves oil majors, national oil companies, oil and chemical traders, chemical companies, and pooling service providers. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Related stocks: HSHP (Himalaya Shipping Ltd.) · HAFN (Hafnia Limited) · SB (Safe Bulkers, Inc) · NMM (Navios Maritime Partners LP) · SBLK (Star Bulk Carriers Corp.)
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