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ASCArdmore Shipping CorporationHold7.1·$16.85+3.95%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ardmore Shipping combines a perfect earnings beat streak and cheap valuation with a failed momentum gate, notable insider selling, and earnings-quality flags that keep the risk/reward thin despite an upcoming catalyst.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Streak Cheap ValuationStable
  • Failed Momentum GateImproving
  • Insider Selling Value Trap FlagImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Marine Shipping

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~68% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 4.5%.

Ardmore Shipping Corporation engages in the seaborne transportation of petroleum products and chemicals worldwide. The company's fleet consists of 26 vessels, including 25 owned Eco-design vessels and one chartered-in vessels. It serves oil majors, national oil companies, oil... Read more

$16.85+4.5% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 19 Marine Shipping
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-1.95%
IncomeYield8.45%Payout25.29%sustainable
Stop $15.50Target $17.43(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$20.50+21.7%2 analysts
$17.43our TP
$16.85price
$20.50mean
$21

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~68% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 4.5%. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202683d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
Attractive valuation
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~68% (cyclical peak)
Thin upside margin: 4.5%
Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.05% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.3
P/E (Fwd)19.8
Mkt Cap$661M
EV/EBITDA4.6
Profit Mgn29.7%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth61.3%
Beta0.03
Dividend8.45%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV90%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.17Resistance $17.66

Price Targets

$16
$17
A.Upside+4.5%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 20x vs trail 6x (3.1x)
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~68% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 4.5%. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $17.43 (+3.4%), stop $15.50 (−8.7%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.43 (+4.5% upside). Target $17.43 (+3.4%), stop $15.50 (−8.7%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $15.50.

What are the risks of investing in ASC?

Earnings expected to decline ~68% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.05% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is ASC overvalued or undervalued?

Ardmore Shipping Corporation trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ASC?

7 analysts cover ASC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Ardmore Shipping Corporation do?Ardmore Shipping Corporation engages in the seaborne transportation of petroleum products and chemicals worldwide. The...

Ardmore Shipping Corporation engages in the seaborne transportation of petroleum products and chemicals worldwide. The company's fleet consists of 26 vessels, including 25 owned Eco-design vessels and one chartered-in vessels. It serves oil majors, national oil companies, oil and chemical traders, chemical companies, and pooling service providers. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Related stocks: SBLK (Star Bulk Carriers Corp.) · HAFN (Hafnia Limited) · NMM (Navios Maritime Partners LP) · SB (Safe Bulkers, Inc) · HSHP (Himalaya Shipping Ltd.)
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