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SDGRSchrodinger, Inc.Sell4.0·$27.18
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Schrodinger shows deteriorating fundamental quality — cash burn, no moat, declining revenue, and a consistent earnings-miss pattern — that keeps it below the investment quality floor, even though price momentum and rising volume have shown some resilience a bull case could point to.

Thesis pillars

  • Deteriorating Quality Cash Burn→Stable
  • Declining Revenue Trend→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Pattern↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ShortHigh Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.18: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality.

Schrödinger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops physics-based computational platform that enables discovery of novel molecules for drug development and materials applications in the United States, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and internationally.... Read more

$27.18-17.2% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#22 of 22 Health Information Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.43%
Stop $25.28Analyst target $22.50(reached)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst consensus$25.86-4.9%7 analysts with price targets
$27.18price
$25.86mean
$17
$32

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.18: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — Schrodinger, Inc.

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:10:05Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-17.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -62.9%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 3.53% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-20.1
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA-11.7
Profit Mgn-21.0%
ROE-16.2%
Rev Growth7.5%
Beta1.65
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV121%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-23Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved an amendment to the 2022 Equity Incentive Plan increasing shares available for issuance by 3,000,000 shares; routine compensatory plan increase, not a departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-08Item 5.02LOW
    Company entered a separation agreement with former Chief Commercial Officer Mannix Aklian confirming previously disclosed severance terms following his May 2026 departure, including nine months of salary continuation.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Mannix Aklian ceased serving as Chief Commercial Officer effective May 18, 2026; Paul Davie, the company's former EVP of Sales, returns as interim CCO while a search for a permanent replacement is conducted.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.7
Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
2.7

Unprofitable operations — net margin -21.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
5.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.4
Current Ratio
9.1
Cash-burning: FCF -11% of revenue

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings today

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Analyst Target
3.0
Ps
4.9
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.73Resistance $31.07

Price Targets

A.Upside-17.2%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -62.9%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 3.53% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SDGR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.18: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $25.28. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

What is the SDGR stock price target?

Analyst target $22.50 reached (−17.2% from $27.18); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $25.28. Stop-loss: $25.28.

What are the risks of investing in SDGR?

Target reached (-17.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -62.9%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 3.53% of cap).

Is SDGR overvalued or undervalued?

Schrodinger, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SDGR?

13 analysts rate SDGR, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $26.

What does Schrodinger, Inc. do?Schrödinger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops physics-based computational platform that enables discovery...

Schrödinger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops physics-based computational platform that enables discovery of novel molecules for drug development and materials applications in the United States, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Drug Discovery. The Software segment sells its software to transform molecular discovery for life sciences and materials science industries. The Drug Discovery segment focuses on building a portfolio of preclinical and clinical programs, internally and through collaborations. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Novartis Pharma AG to advance multiple development candidates. Schrödinger, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in New York, New York.

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