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Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na (SBH) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and... Read more

$11.82+20.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#7 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield14.33%
Stop $11.19Target $14.27(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$16.40+38.7%5 analysts
$14.27our TP
$11.82price
$16.40mean
$20

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.6Qual6.0Grw3.8Mom2.0Sent5.8Ins5.0Peer5.5Tech6.9Risk4.05.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 56%
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.6
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE23.9%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta1.07
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Earnings Growth
4.6
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
22 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.54Resistance $15.75

Price Targets

$11
$14
A.Upside+20.7%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $11.19. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the SBH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.27 (+20.7% upside). Prior stop was $11.19. Stop-loss: $11.19.

What are the risks of investing in SBH?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Weak growth.

Is SBH overvalued or undervalued?

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na trades at a P/E of 6.6 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SBH?

9 analysts cover SBH with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na do?Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The...

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty products for retail customers, salons, and salon professionals. This segment also provides products under Wella and L'Oreal brands, as well as Clairol, OPI, Wahl, and BaByliss Pro. The Beauty Systems Group segment offers professional beauty products, such as hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty items directly to salons, and licensed beauty professionals, and salon professionals through its professional-only stores, e-commerce platforms, and sales force, as well as through franchised stores under the Armstrong McCall store name. This segment also sells products under Paul Mitchell and Wella brands, including Matrix, Schwarzkopf, Kenra, Goldwell, Joico, Amika, and Moroccanoil. In addition, it operates company-operated stores, salon business consultants, digital platforms and franchised units in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Chile, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Germany. Further, the company distributes its products through full-service/exclusive distributors and open-line distributors. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

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