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Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na (SBH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Weak growth.

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and... Read more

$14.07+16.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#9 of 18 Specialty Retail
Stop $13.09Target $16.36(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$18.80+33.6%5 analysts
$16.36our TP
$14.07price
$18.80mean
$20

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 47%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.9
P/E (Fwd)6.2
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE24.4%
Rev Growth0.6%
Beta1.12
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV78%elevated
Max Pain$3-82.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.7

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.71Resistance $15.75

Price Targets

$13
$16
A.Upside+16.3%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-11 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.09. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the SBH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.36 (+16.2% upside). Prior stop was $13.09. Stop-loss: $13.09.

What are the risks of investing in SBH?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is SBH overvalued or undervalued?

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na trades at a P/E of 7.9 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SBH?

9 analysts cover SBH with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na do?Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The...

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty products for retail customers, salons, and salon professionals. This segment also provides products under Wella and L'Oreal brands, as well as Clairol, OPI, Wahl, and BaByliss Pro. The Beauty Systems Group segment offers professional beauty products, such as hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty items directly to salons, and licensed beauty professionals, and salon professionals through its professional-only stores, e-commerce platforms, and sales force, as well as through franchised stores under the Armstrong McCall store name. This segment also sells products under Paul Mitchell and Wella brands, including Matrix, Schwarzkopf, Kenra, Goldwell, Joico, Amika, and Moroccanoil. In addition, it operates company-operated stores, salon business consultants, digital platforms and franchised units in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Chile, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Germany. Further, the company distributes its products through full-service/exclusive distributors and open-line distributors. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

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