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SATLSatellogic Inc.Sell4.4·$3.32
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Satellogic's strong revenue growth and oversold-in-uptrend momentum are offset by extreme insider selling and severe cash burn, consistent with a mixed-signals hold call.

Thesis pillars

  • Severe Cash Burn↑Improving
  • Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Extreme Insider Selling↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Satellogic Inc. (SATL) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5GrowthShortHigh Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Satellogic Inc. operates as a vertically integrated earth observation company in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Asia, North America, and South America. The company designs, manufactures, and operates satellite systems, delivering decision-grade insights; geospatial data through its... Read more

$3.32+69.6% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#65 of 66 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-3.69%
Stop $3.09Resistance target $5.63A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst consensus$10.20+207.2%5 analysts
$5.63Resistance target
$3.32price
$10.20mean
$11

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 3/7 gates (clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 20268d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive insider activity
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-110.7
Mkt Cap$510M
EV/EBITDA-31.7
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE—
Rev Growth258.5%
Beta1.37
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.10bearish
IV137%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomercustomers each accounting for more than 10% of revenue
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we had three customers that each accounted for more than 10% of our total revenue and in 2024, we had two customers that accounted for 10% of our total revenue.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierSpaceX launch services
    10-K Item 1A: 'Currently there are only a few companies that offer launch services, including SpaceX, with whom we have entered into the SpaceX Agreement.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Rick Dunn agreed to step down at the end of a transition period; the company commenced a search for a successor and Dunn will continue serving during the transition for an orderly handoff. No successor yet named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-04Item 5.02LOW
    Board increased from seven to eight directors and appointed Michael E. Williamson as a new independent Class III director effective June 1, 2026; his committee assignments have not yet been determined.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (20%).

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.0
Volume
6.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+7.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
9.7
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Speculative
RSI
24 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.16Resistance $5.74

Price Targets

$3
$6
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $10.20 vs price $3.32 — ratio 3.1×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SATL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $3.09. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the SATL stock price target?

Resistance target: $5.63 (+69.6% upside). Prior stop was $3.09. Stop-loss: $3.09.

What are the risks of investing in SATL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

Is SATL overvalued or undervalued?

Satellogic Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -110.7). TrendMatrix value score: 0.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SATL?

11 analysts cover SATL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Satellogic Inc. do?Satellogic Inc. operates as a vertically integrated earth observation company in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Asia, North...

Satellogic Inc. operates as a vertically integrated earth observation company in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Asia, North America, and South America. The company designs, manufactures, and operates satellite systems, delivering decision-grade insights; geospatial data through its platform to identify climate change, energy supply, and food security; provides constellation-as-a-service services and space system solutions; and satellite sales and support services. It also deploys satellites with monitoring assets. The company has strategic collaboration with SynMax to develop and deliver AI-powered geospatial intelligence products for defense and intelligence customers. The company serves government, commercial customers, sovereign customers, and local partners. It has a strategic collaboration agreement with SpaceKnow to deliver planetary-scale monitoring solutions to commercial and government customers. Satellogic Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Davidson, North Carolina.

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