Value
0.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
SATL · Why this verdict
Why Satellogic (SATL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Satellogic's strong revenue growth and oversold-in-uptrend momentum are offset by extreme insider selling and severe cash burn, consistent with a mixed-signals hold call.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Satellogic is burning cash at -82% of revenue with an operating margin of -104.2%, and it fails the combined growth-plus-margin Rule of 40 test. Bear case | Free cash flow burn should narrow toward breakeven as the business scales over the next several quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHeavy cash burn is expected for a satellite-manufacturing and deployment company still building out its constellation, and may not indicate a structural profitability problem. | ||
Satellogic is growing revenue 80% year over year and is identified as an industry growth leader among its peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHypergrowth off a small satellite-imaging revenue base can decelerate sharply once early contract wins are annualized. | ||
Insiders sold $97,700,000 of stock over the past 90 days, equal to over 12% of market cap, a level classified as extreme and the primary gate failure driving concern. Warnings | Insider selling should moderate well below the extreme threshold over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA large one-time insider sale can reflect a single early investor or founder diversifying rather than an ongoing pattern of insider skepticism. | ||
Satellogic is oversold with an RSI of 27 while still trading above its 200-day moving average, an oversold condition within an ongoing uptrend. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover toward a neutral 50 range while price holds above the 200-day moving average. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterAn oversold RSI combined with heavy insider selling and severe cash burn increases the risk that this is the start of a trend reversal rather than a buyable dip. | ||
Satellogic is burning cash at -82% of revenue with an operating margin of -104.2%, and it fails the combined growth-plus-margin Rule of 40 test.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn should narrow toward breakeven as the business scales over the next several quarters.
CounterHeavy cash burn is expected for a satellite-manufacturing and deployment company still building out its constellation, and may not indicate a structural profitability problem.
Satellogic is growing revenue 80% year over year and is identified as an industry growth leader among its peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next several quarters.
CounterHypergrowth off a small satellite-imaging revenue base can decelerate sharply once early contract wins are annualized.
Insiders sold $97,700,000 of stock over the past 90 days, equal to over 12% of market cap, a level classified as extreme and the primary gate failure driving concern.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate well below the extreme threshold over the next two quarters.
CounterA large one-time insider sale can reflect a single early investor or founder diversifying rather than an ongoing pattern of insider skepticism.
Satellogic is oversold with an RSI of 27 while still trading above its 200-day moving average, an oversold condition within an ongoing uptrend.
Tripped↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover toward a neutral 50 range while price holds above the 200-day moving average.
CounterAn oversold RSI combined with heavy insider selling and severe cash burn increases the risk that this is the start of a trend reversal rather than a buyable dip.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -82% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: -1 (fail)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 80% YoY
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 200%
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $97,700,000 (17.551% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.9 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 18%
- ▸High IV: 116%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (3)
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- INSIDER:17.55%=EXTREME
Warning (3)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -69% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5, INSIDER:17.55%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Value at 0.0, Momentum at 2.5, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY in a subsequent quarter.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 15% of market cap over a rolling 90-day window.
- P3Severe Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow burn stays below -90% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Oversold Momentum In UptrendTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average.