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SAP SE (SAP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $170.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth.

SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide. It offers SAP Business AI; SAP S/4HANA that provides software capabilities for finance, risk and project management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain and asset... Read more

$170.40+34.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#64 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $158.67Target $230.08(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$264.46+55.2%13 analysts
$230.08our TP
$170.40price
$264.46mean
$340

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $170.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 35%
Risks
Weak growth
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.3
P/E (Fwd)17.3
Mkt Cap$200.5B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn19.6%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth6.0%
Beta0.76
Dividend1.74%
Rating analysts41

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$125-26.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.4
Value Rank
4.7
Quality Rank
7.1
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $160.66Resistance $188.50

Price Targets

$159
$230
A.Upside+35.0%
A.R:R4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $170.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $158.67. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $230.08 (+34.9% upside). Prior stop was $158.67. Stop-loss: $158.67.

What are the risks of investing in SAP?

Weak growth; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is SAP overvalued or undervalued?

SAP SE trades at a P/E of 23.3 (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAP?

41 analysts cover SAP with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $264.

What does SAP SE do?SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide. It offers SAP...

SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide. It offers SAP Business AI; SAP S/4HANA that provides software capabilities for finance, risk and project management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain and asset management, and research and development; SAP SuccessFactors solutions for human resources, including HR, time, payroll, talent and employee experience management, and analytics and planning; and spend management solutions that covers direct and indirect spend, travel and expense, and external workforce management. The company also provides SAP customer experience solutions; SAP Business Technology platform that enables customers and partners to build, integrate, and automate applications; and SAP Business Network, a business-to-business collaboration platform that helps digitalize key business processes across the supply chain and enables communication between trading partners. In addition, it offers SAP Signavio to help customers to discover, analyze, and understand business process operations; industry solutions that provide customers and partners with industry-specific solutions; and SAP LeanIX to visualize enterprise architecture, assess interdependencies and the potential impact of IT modernization, and manage the transition toward the target landscape. Further, the company provides WalkMe to execute workflows; SAP Enable Now, which offers e-learning content embedded in SAP workflows; Taulia solutions for working capital management; and sustainability solutions and services. Additionally, it provides services and support solutions. SAP SE was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Walldorf, Germany.

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