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Science Applications Internatio (SAIC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. At $96.54, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%).

Science Applications International Corporation provides technical, engineering, and IT services primarily to U.S. government agencies across defense, intelligence, and civilian sectors, operating through ~1,700 active contracts with approximately 23,000 employees. Revenue is... Read more

$96.54-0.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#14 of 34 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield10.16%
IncomeYield1.55%(5y avg 1.43%)Payout19.22%sustainable
Stop $89.78Target $96.48(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$109.78+13.7%9 analysts
$96.48our TP
$96.54price
$109.78mean
$85
$130

Sell if holding. At $96.54, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Science Applications Internatio

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.4
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE23.3%
Rev Growth-4.8%
Beta0.27
Dividend1.55%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.77neutral
IV48%normal
Max Pain$70-27.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government98%
    10-K Item 1: '98% of our total revenues were attributable to prime contracts with the U.S. government or to subcontracts with other contractors engaged in work for the U.S. government'
  • HIGHCustomerDepartment of War52%
    10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2026, 2025 and 2024, approximately 52% of our total revenues were attributable to the "Department of War"'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Paul Eremenko and Admiral Michael Rogers (USN Ret.) appointed to SAIC Board of Directors effective April 8, 2026, expanding Board from 11 to 13 members. Both joined Audit and Technology Committees.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James C. Reagan formally appointed permanent CEO effective February 17, 2026. Reagan had served as Interim CEO since October 23, 2025 and previously as EVP/CFO of Leidos Holdings. Successor in place; transition from interim to permanent.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.7
Bollinger
2.1
52w Position
5.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
5.0
Value Rank
7.5
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $87.12Resistance $98.45

Price Targets

$90
$96
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-01 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAIC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $96.54, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $89.78. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the SAIC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $96.48 (-0.1% upside). Prior stop was $89.78. Stop-loss: $89.78.

What are the risks of investing in SAIC?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SAIC overvalued or undervalued?

Science Applications Internatio trades at a P/E of 12.4 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAIC?

16 analysts cover SAIC with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Science Applications Internatio do?Science Applications International Corporation provides technical, engineering, and IT services primarily to U.S....

Science Applications International Corporation provides technical, engineering, and IT services primarily to U.S. government agencies across defense, intelligence, and civilian sectors, operating through ~1,700 active contracts with approximately 23,000 employees. Revenue is earned from government contracts (cost-reimbursable, T&M, and FFP), with 98% from U.S. government work across the last three fiscal years.

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