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Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: NYCDOT (17.9%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 Commercial Services customers (34.8%).

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility technology—toll/violations management, photo enforcement, and commercial parking—through three segments: Commercial Services ($435.8M, 45% of 2025 revenue), Government Solutions ($460.7M, 47%), and Parking Solutions ($82.6M, 8%). Customers... Read more

$13.28+40.4% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 34 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.65%
Stop $12.60Target $18.64(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.9:1
Analyst target$21.43+61.4%7 analysts
$18.64our TP
$13.28price
$21.43mean
$27

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: NYCDOT (17.9%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 Commercial Services customers (34.8%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.8Qual7.2Grw6.2Mom1.9Sent6.8Ins5.0Peer3.7Tech5.9Risk4.85.9OVERALL

Recent Developments — Verra Mobility Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: NYCDOT (17.9%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 Commercial Services customers (34.8%)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn13.4%
ROE45.9%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta0.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C41.00bearish
IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerNYCDOT18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'NYCDOT represented approximately 17.9% and 15.8% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • HIGHCustomertop-3 Commercial Services customers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Three of our Commercial Services customers collectively accounted for 34.8% and 36.0% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.7
Volume
2.7
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.0
Value Rank
3.5
Quality Rank
8.2
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
22 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.99Resistance $15.48

Price Targets

$13
$19
A.Upside+40.4%
A.R:R4.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRRM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: NYCDOT (17.9%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 Commercial Services customers (34.8%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $12.60. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

What is the VRRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.64 (+40.4% upside). Prior stop was $12.60. Stop-loss: $12.60.

What are the risks of investing in VRRM?

Concentration risk — Customer: NYCDOT (17.9%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 Commercial Services customers (34.8%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is VRRM overvalued or undervalued?

Verra Mobility Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VRRM?

14 analysts cover VRRM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Verra Mobility Corporation do?Verra Mobility provides smart mobility technology—toll/violations management, photo enforcement, and commercial...

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility technology—toll/violations management, photo enforcement, and commercial parking—through three segments: Commercial Services ($435.8M, 45% of 2025 revenue), Government Solutions ($460.7M, 47%), and Parking Solutions ($82.6M, 8%). Customers include large rental car companies, governments, and parking operators across the US, Australia, Europe, and Canada.

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