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Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.73: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility tech—toll management, photo enforcement, and title/registration—across US, Australia, Europe, and Canada via Commercial Services (~45%, ~$436M), Government Solutions (~47%, ~$461M), and Parking Solutions (~8%) segments. NYCDOT accounted for... Read more

$14.73+47.4% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 35 Information Technology Services
Stop $13.86Target $21.63(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.5:1
Analyst target$24.86+68.8%7 analysts
$21.63our TP
$14.73price
$24.86mean
$30

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.73: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn14.0%
ROE49.0%
Rev Growth16.4%
Beta0.68
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C4.20bearish
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$5-66.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerNYCDOT18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'NYCDOT represented approximately 17.9% and 15.8% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-3 Commercial Services customers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Three of our Commercial Services customers collectively accounted for 34.8%...total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 8.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.98Resistance $15.55

Price Targets

$14
$22
A.Upside+46.8%
A.R:R8.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRRM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.73: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $13.86. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VRRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.63 (+47.4% upside). Prior stop was $13.86. Stop-loss: $13.86.

What are the risks of investing in VRRM?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is VRRM overvalued or undervalued?

Verra Mobility Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VRRM?

14 analysts cover VRRM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Verra Mobility Corporation do?Verra Mobility provides smart mobility tech—toll management, photo enforcement, and title/registration—across US,...

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility tech—toll management, photo enforcement, and title/registration—across US, Australia, Europe, and Canada via Commercial Services (~45%, ~$436M), Government Solutions (~47%, ~$461M), and Parking Solutions (~8%) segments. NYCDOT accounted for 17.9% of 2025 total revenues.

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