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Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $74.06: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Elevated put/call ratio: 7.17; Below-average business quality.

Sonic Automotive is one of the largest U.S. automotive retailers, operating 111 franchised dealerships, 18 EchoPark pre-owned stores, and 14 Powersports stores across 18 states as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is primarily from vehicle sales, fixed operations, and F&I products;... Read more

$74.06+10.2% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#15 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.21%(5y avg 1.82%)Payout47.00%sustainable
Stop $68.88Target $81.64(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$81.91+10.6%11 analysts
$81.64our TP
$74.06price
$81.91mean
$70
$96

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $74.06: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Elevated put/call ratio: 7.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Sonic Automotive, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.8% upside)
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.4
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn0.7%
ROE
Rev Growth1.0%
Beta0.90
Dividend2.21%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C7.17bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$55-25.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas26%
    10-K Item 1: 'Texas| | 27 | | | 6 | | | 7| | 26.2 | %'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia25%
    10-K Item 1: 'California| | 23 | | | 1 | | | — | | | 24.6 | %'
  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle third-party provider for extended warranties
    10-K Item 1: 'We work with a single third-party provider for the majority of our extended warranties, service contracts and other aftermarket products.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved performance-based RSU grants to CEO David Bruton Smith (69,872 units), President Jeff Dyke (38,175 units), and CFO Heath Byrd (26,183 units) under 2026 Equity Incentive Plan. Vesting contingent on 2026 adjusted EPS goals.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved the Sonic Automotive 2026 Equity Incentive Plan at April 29, 2026 annual meeting, replacing the 2012 Stock Incentive Plan. 2,318,148 shares reserved for issuance.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee established 2026 performance-based cash bonus parameters for CEO David Bruton Smith, President Jeff Dyke, and CFO Heath Byrd based on adjusted EPS and customer satisfaction goals.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.4
Operating Margin
1.3
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.9
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Volatile — 5.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Short Interest
0.8
Debt Equity
1.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Implied Vol
6.4
Beta
7.6
High short interest justified: 27%Elevated put/call: 7.17Above max pain $55Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $69.14Resistance $83.31

Price Targets

$69
$82
A.Upside+10.2%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $74.06: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Elevated put/call ratio: 7.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $68.88. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.64 (+10.2% upside). Prior stop was $68.88. Stop-loss: $68.88.

What are the risks of investing in SAH?

Target reached (-3.8% upside); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is SAH overvalued or undervalued?

Sonic Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.4 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAH?

16 analysts cover SAH with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $82.

What does Sonic Automotive, Inc. do?Sonic Automotive is one of the largest U.S. automotive retailers, operating 111 franchised dealerships, 18 EchoPark...

Sonic Automotive is one of the largest U.S. automotive retailers, operating 111 franchised dealerships, 18 EchoPark pre-owned stores, and 14 Powersports stores across 18 states as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is primarily from vehicle sales, fixed operations, and F&I products; the Franchised Dealerships Segment generated 85% of total 2025 revenue.

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