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Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $199.00: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.38; Below-average business quality.

Asbury Automotive Group operates 223 new vehicle franchises across 171 dealership locations and 39 collision centers in 15 states, selling new/used vehicles, parts/service, and F&I products. Toyota/Lexus is the single largest manufacturer at 30% of new vehicle revenues; Ford and... Read more

$199.00+4.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#6 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
Stop $185.07Target $207.45(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$238.44+19.8%9 analysts
$207.45our TP
$199.00price
$238.44mean
$312

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $199.00: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. (Toyota and Lexus) (30.0%)
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.1
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn3.0%
ROE
Rev Growth-0.9%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C5.38bearish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$155-22.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierToyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. (Toyota and Lexus)30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. (Toyota and Lexus)| 30 | %'
  • MEDIUMSupplierFord Motor Company (Ford and Lincoln)14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Ford Motor Company (Ford and Lincoln)| 14 | %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-04Item 5.02LOW
    Christopher DiSantis appointed to Asbury Board of Directors effective March 1, 2026. Appointed to Audit Committee and Compensation & Human Resources Committee. Board expanded to 11, with 10 independent directors.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.5
Operating Margin
1.9
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
5.0
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $188.00Resistance $215.61

Price Targets

$185
$207
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $199.00: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $185.07. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ABG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $207.45 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $185.07. Stop-loss: $185.07.

What are the risks of investing in ABG?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. (Toyota and Lexus) (30.0%); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is ABG overvalued or undervalued?

Asbury Automotive Group Inc trades at a P/E of 7.1 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ABG?

14 analysts cover ABG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $238.

What does Asbury Automotive Group Inc do?Asbury Automotive Group operates 223 new vehicle franchises across 171 dealership locations and 39 collision centers in...

Asbury Automotive Group operates 223 new vehicle franchises across 171 dealership locations and 39 collision centers in 15 states, selling new/used vehicles, parts/service, and F&I products. Toyota/Lexus is the single largest manufacturer at 30% of new vehicle revenues; Ford and Honda are the next largest at 14% and 10% respectively.

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