Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ABG stock price target?

Take-profit $205.03 (+15.5% upside). Prior stop was $166.85.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ABG?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Toyota Motor Sales (Toyota and Lexus) (30.0%); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.2%), Material insider selling (47 sells, 0.08% of cap); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.2%), Material insider selling (47 sells, 0.08% of cap).

Q: Is ABG overvalued or undervalued?

Asbury Automotive Group Inc trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ABG?

14 analysts cover ABG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $236.

Q: What does Asbury Automotive Group Inc do?

Asbury Automotive Group is one of the largest U.S. franchised automotive retailers with 223 franchises across 36 brands at 171 dealership locations in 15 states, plus 39 collision centers and TCA (its F&I product provider). Revenue comes from new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, F&I products, and TCA premiums, with Toyota/Lexus at 30% and Ford/Lincoln at 14% of 2025 new vehicle revenues.

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 8 hr ago (May 20, 2026, 8:56 AM ET)

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $177.50: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.75; Below-average business quality.

Asbury Automotive Group is one of the largest U.S. franchised automotive retailers with 223 franchises across 36 brands at 171 dealership locations in 15 states, plus 39 collision centers and TCA (its F&I product provider). Revenue comes from new and used vehicle sales, parts... Read more

$177.50+15.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships

QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield14.76%

Stop $166.85Target $205.03(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1

Analyst target$235.67+32.8%9 analysts

$205.03our TP

$177.50price

$235.67mean

$312

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Asbury Automotive Group Inc

Latest news

JP Morgan Maintains Underweight on Asbury Automotive Group, Lowers Price Target to $220 — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
Asbury Automotive Group Announces Formal Transition Of David Hult From CEO To Executive Chairman Effective May 4 — benzinga May 4, 2026 neutral
Asbury Automotive Gr Q1 Adj. EPS $5.37 Misses $5.62 Estimate, Sales $4.113B Miss $4.375B Estimate — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 negative
Earnings Scheduled For April 28, 2026 — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 neutral
JP Morgan Maintains Underweight on Asbury Automotive Group, Lowers Price Target to $235 — benzinga Apr 17, 2026 negative

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Supplier: Toyota Motor Sales (Toyota and Lexus) (30.0%)

Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.2%), Material insider selling (47 sells, 0.08% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.3

P/E (Fwd)6.0

Mkt Cap$3.3B

EV/EBITDA8.4

Profit Mgn3.0%

ROE14.5%

Rev Growth-0.9%

Beta0.78

DividendNone

Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C4.75bearish

IV43%normal

Max Pain$165-7.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHSupplierToyota Motor Sales (Toyota and Lexus)30%
10-K Item 1A: 'Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. (Toyota and Lexus)| 30 | %'
LOWSupplierFord Motor Company (Ford and Lincoln)14%
10-K Item 1A: 'Ford Motor Company (Ford and Lincoln)| 14 | %'
LOWSupplierAmerican Honda Motor Co. (Honda and Acura)10%
10-K Item 1A: 'American Honda Motor Co., Inc. (Honda and Acura)| 10 | %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-05-06Item 5.02LOW
Employment agreement entered with Daniel Clara as President and CEO on May 4, 2026 (Transition Date), superseding prior severance agreement. Clara had been elected to the role in December 2025 effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.015%1.35

Quality3.415%0.51

Growth6.215%0.93

Momentum3.310%0.33

Sentiment7.010%0.70

Insider Activity6.510%0.65

Peer Rank5.910%0.59

Technical Setup7.15%0.35

Risk Profile4.55%0.23

Catalyst4.85%0.24

Overall (Σ contributions)5.88

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Ma Position

1.0

Volume

2.5

Rsi

3.0

Obv

10.0

Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Net Margin

1.5

Operating Margin

1.9

Moat

3.6

Roa

3.7

Current Ratio

3.8

Piotroski F

4.4

Roe

4.8

Fcf Quality

6.5

No competitive moat

GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

25 · Oversold

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $172.01Resistance $209.53

Price Targets

$167

$205

A.Upside+15.5%

A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.2%), Material insider selling (47 sells, 0.08% of cap)

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ABG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $177.50: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $166.85. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ABG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $205.03 (+15.5% upside). Prior stop was $166.85. Stop-loss: $166.85.

What are the risks of investing in ABG?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Toyota Motor Sales (Toyota and Lexus) (30.0%); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.2%), Material insider selling (47 sells, 0.08% of cap).

Is ABG overvalued or undervalued?

Asbury Automotive Group Inc trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ABG?

14 analysts cover ABG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $236.

What does Asbury Automotive Group Inc do?Asbury Automotive Group is one of the largest U.S. franchised automotive retailers with 223 franchises across 36 brands...