Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Technology · Solar
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.63: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.51; Below-average business quality.
Sunrun is the nation's leading residential solar and storage provider, offering subscription-based solar energy via 20-25 year Customer Agreements and battery storage, serving residential homeowners. As of December 31, 2025, it had 8,404 MW Networked Solar Energy Capacity and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.63: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.51; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Sunrun Inc.
About Sunrun Inc.
Sunrun held 8,404 megawatts of Networked Solar Energy Capacity and $21.1 billion in Gross Earning Assets at December 31, 2025, operating the largest fleet of residential energy systems in the United States since acquiring Vivint Solar on October 8, 2020. California represents over 45% of the company's customer base, making it the dominant geography, while a multi-channel sales model—direct-to-consumer, energy system partnerships, and strategic partnerships—supports reach across additional U.S. states.
Sunrun generates revenue and cash flows primarily through 20- or 25-year Customer Agreements—leases and power purchase agreements—under which customers pay for solar output at predetermined rates without purchasing systems outright. Tax equity investment funds have historically financed upfront installation costs; during 2024, the company transitioned a large portion of funding from traditional tax equity to tax credit transfer (transferability) structures under IRA provisions, which can delay cash receipt by monthly to over a year following system placement in service. Solar panels, inverters, and batteries are sourced from a limited number of manufacturers and suppliers, creating supply-chain exposure to tariff volatility: the Commerce Department in April 2025 issued final anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates on modules from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, with rates ranging from 1.92% to 534.67%. Sales are delivered through direct-to-consumer field and retail teams, energy system integrators, and strategic partnerships with consumer brands that market the Sunrun offering to their own customer bases.
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The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, accelerated the sunset of the Section 48E Clean Electricity Investment Credit for solar after December 31, 2027, unless construction begins by July 4, 2026—a hard deadline that constrains the near-term tax equity market on which Sunrun depends. California's April 2023 Net Billing Tariff transition reduced the financial credits customers receive from solar systems, with originations in the state remaining below pre-NBT levels. Treasury Notice 2025-42, issued in August 2025, largely eliminated the long-established 5% safe harbor for solar construction starts, adding to project timing uncertainty in Sunrun's core funding model.
See also: Technology · Solar
From Sunrun Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Sunrun Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS W.P. Carey To Rally Around 10%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Tuesday — benzinga Jun 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS GLJ Research Reiterates Sell on Sunrun, Maintains $4.63 Price Target — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 negative
- NEWS 8 Industrials Stocks Whale Activity In Today's Session — benzinga Jun 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 10 Industrials Stocks Whale Activity In Today's Session — benzinga May 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS U.S. Solar Manufacturers Seek Commerce Department Probe Into Panel Imports From Ethiopia, Allege They Are Dodging Tariff — benzinga May 12, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T09:36:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia45%10-K Item 1A: 'California, which is one of our key markets and represents over 45% of our customer base, as of December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Volatile — 7.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.63: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.51; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $11.76. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.34 (+37.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.76. Stop-loss: $11.76.
Cyclical trap - fwd PE 15x vs trail 6x (2.6x); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).
Sunrun Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.9 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover RUN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Sunrun Inc. do?Sunrun is the nation's leading residential solar and storage provider, offering subscription-based solar energy via...
Sunrun is the nation's leading residential solar and storage provider, offering subscription-based solar energy via 20-25 year Customer Agreements and battery storage, serving residential homeowners. As of December 31, 2025, it had 8,404 MW Networked Solar Energy Capacity and Gross Earning Assets of ~$21.1B, financed through tax equity and debt.