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Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Solar

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.17: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 29%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Sunrun is the nation's leading residential solar and storage provider, offering subscription-based solar energy via 20-25 year Customer Agreements and battery storage, serving residential homeowners. As of December 31, 2025, it had 8,404 MW Networked Solar Energy Capacity and... Read more

$13.17+31.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 9 Solar
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-69.67%
Stop $12.25Target $17.29(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$19.21+45.9%19 analysts
$17.29our TP
$13.17price
$19.21mean
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.17: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 29%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Sunrun Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Cyclical trap - fwd PE 17x vs trail 6x (2.7x)
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -28.1%), Material insider selling (16 sells, 0.13% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.3
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA27.7
Profit Mgn17.9%
ROE-22.7%
Rev Growth43.2%
Beta2.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.66bullish
IV86%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia45%
    10-K Item 1A: 'California, which is one of our key markets and represents over 45% of our customer base, as of December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 7.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
0.6
Debt Equity
2.0
Beta
2.5
Days To Cover
3.8
Put Call
8.9
High short interest justified: 29%High IV: 86%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
2.4
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
5.3
Net Margin
8.9
Strong margins: 18%Earnings quality RED FLAG: -395% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.0
Ma Position
4.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.68Resistance $15.79

Price Targets

$12
$17
A.Upside+31.3%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 17x vs trail 6x (2.7x)
! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -28.1%), Material insider selling (16 sells, 0.13% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RUN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.17: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 29%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $12.25. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RUN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.29 (+31.3% upside). Prior stop was $12.25. Stop-loss: $12.25.

What are the risks of investing in RUN?

Cyclical trap - fwd PE 17x vs trail 6x (2.7x); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -28.1%), Material insider selling (16 sells, 0.13% of cap).

Is RUN overvalued or undervalued?

Sunrun Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RUN?

29 analysts cover RUN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Sunrun Inc. do?Sunrun is the nation's leading residential solar and storage provider, offering subscription-based solar energy via...

Sunrun is the nation's leading residential solar and storage provider, offering subscription-based solar energy via 20-25 year Customer Agreements and battery storage, serving residential homeowners. As of December 31, 2025, it had 8,404 MW Networked Solar Energy Capacity and Gross Earning Assets of ~$21.1B, financed through tax equity and debt.

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