Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Solar
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.59: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Sunrun is the largest US residential solar provider by installed fleet, offering residential solar and battery storage as a subscription service (typically 20-25 year terms) with no upfront costs. As of December 31, 2025, it had 8,404 MW of networked solar energy capacity and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.59: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'California, which is one of our key markets and represents over 45% of our customer base, as of December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Volatile — 5.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.59: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $11.72. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.70 (+40.4% upside). Prior stop was $11.72. Stop-loss: $11.72.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Cyclical trap - fwd PE 21x vs trail 7x (3.0x); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).
Sunrun Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.0 (forward 21.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts cover RUN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $20.
What does Sunrun Inc. do?Sunrun is the largest US residential solar provider by installed fleet, offering residential solar and battery storage...
Sunrun is the largest US residential solar provider by installed fleet, offering residential solar and battery storage as a subscription service (typically 20-25 year terms) with no upfront costs. As of December 31, 2025, it had 8,404 MW of networked solar energy capacity and $21.1B in Gross Earning Assets, financed through tax equity and non-recourse debt.