A 24% year-over-year revenue growth rate and a near-perfect financial health score underpin the long-term quality case, but momentum below its minimum threshold, a 10% short float, and a leverage penalty on a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.9 create near-term headwinds that favor patience over adding exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Earnings Growth↓Deteriorating
- High Quality Margins Financial Health↓Deteriorating
- Momentum Short Interest Overhang↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026· older than 90 days
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Solar
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $185.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth.
First Solar manufactures cadmium telluride thin film PV solar modules, with production facilities in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India; the United States accounted for 96% of 2025 net sales. Revenue comes from selling modules to project developers, utilities, and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $185.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
About First Solar, Inc.
About First Solar, Inc.
The United States represented 96% of First Solar's 2025 net sales. The company has sold over 93 gigawatts of modules worldwide since inception, manufacturing CdTe thin film modules at facilities in Ohio, Alabama, and Louisiana, with a sixth U.S. plant expected to commence in the second half of 2026. The Inflation Reduction Act's Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit, available from 2023 through 2032, has supported domestic module economics.
First Solar earns revenue exclusively from module sales—designing, manufacturing, and selling CdTe thin film panels to project developers, utilities, independent power producers, and commercial and industrial buyers. The company's manufacturing process is a fully integrated, continuous flow operation that takes raw glass through deposition, cell definition, and assembly stages within hours, eliminating the multi-factory batch processing of crystalline silicon competitors. Raw material dependencies include cadmium telluride, tellurium, and substrate glass, some of which are single-sourced or sourced from a limited number of suppliers—a risk the 10-K explicitly acknowledges. Series 7 modules averaged 532 watts at end of 2025 versus 464 watts for Series 6 Plus, with the larger 4-by-7-foot form factor reducing installation time. First Solar does not source from Chinese crystalline silicon supply chains, a structural differentiator in U.S. markets where foreign-entity-related restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act may limit competitors' access to tax credit eligibility.
Show full overview
First Solar's financial model is materially subject to federal tax policy. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025 introduced an accelerated termination framework for the clean electricity investment tax credit under Section 48E and the production tax credit under Section 45Y, requiring utility-scale solar projects to begin construction by early July 2026 to remain eligible. This compressed timeline could weigh on developer demand in the post-deadline period. Additionally, the Section 45X manufacturing credit—First Solar's primary direct benefit—phases down starting in 2030 and expires in 2032, creating a medium-term headwind if domestic manufacturing demand does not scale sufficiently before that window closes.
See also: Technology · Solar
From First Solar, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — First Solar, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Roth Capital Partners Maintains 'Buy' Rating on First Solar — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Susquehanna cuts First Solar stock price target on lower guidance - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS First Solar slides after cutting full-year sales guidance (FSLR:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) misses Q3 2026 sales expectations - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS First Solar (FSLR) Set to Report Q3 Earnings Amid Modest Underva - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Revenue shrinking — -22.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $185.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $252.30 (+35.7%), stop $172.89 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $252.30 (+35.7% upside). Analyst target $252.30 (+35.7%), stop $172.89 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $172.89.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth; Elevated risk factors.
First Solar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
47 analysts rate FSLR, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 30 analysts publish price targets averaging $274.
What does First Solar, Inc. do?First Solar manufactures cadmium telluride thin film PV solar modules, with production facilities in the U.S.,...
First Solar manufactures cadmium telluride thin film PV solar modules, with production facilities in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India; the United States accounted for 96% of 2025 net sales. Revenue comes from selling modules to project developers, utilities, and independent power producers, supported by over $2 billion in cumulative R&D investment over 20 years.