Skip to main content

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Solar

Sell if holding. At $229.56, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass.

First Solar is the largest thin-film CdTe PV solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere, with facilities in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India. Revenue comes from module sales to utilities, developers, and commercial customers; the U.S. accounted for 96% of 2025 net... Read more

$229.56+2.8% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#1 of 9 Solar
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.82%
Stop $213.48Target $236.02(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$243.22+6.0%27 analysts
$236.02our TP
$229.56price
$243.22mean
$150
$310

Sell if holding. At $229.56, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — First Solar, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$23.8B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn30.7%
ROE18.4%
Rev Growth23.6%
Beta1.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts48

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00bearish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$175-23.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States96%
    10-K Item 1: 'Multiple markets within the United States, which accounted for 96% of our 2025 net sales'
  • HIGHSupplierCdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass
    10-K Item 1A: 'Several of our key raw materials and components, in particular CdTe, tellurium, products containing tellurium, and substrate glass... are either single-sourced or sourced from a limited number of suppliers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 1.02MEDIUM
    First Solar terminated its prior credit arrangements and on February 13, 2026 entered a new $1.5B senior unsecured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase as administrative agent. No reason cited beyond routine refinancing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $187.20Resistance $240.84

Price Targets

$213
$236
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSLR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $229.56, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $213.48. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSLR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $236.02 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $213.48. Stop-loss: $213.48.

What are the risks of investing in FSLR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is FSLR overvalued or undervalued?

First Solar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FSLR?

48 analysts cover FSLR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $243.

What does First Solar, Inc. do?First Solar is the largest thin-film CdTe PV solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere, with facilities in...

First Solar is the largest thin-film CdTe PV solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere, with facilities in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India. Revenue comes from module sales to utilities, developers, and commercial customers; the U.S. accounted for 96% of 2025 net sales driven by IRA-related domestic demand. Its non-Chinese supply chain and 45X manufacturing tax credits are key competitive moats.

Related stocks: RUN (Sunrun Inc.) · SEDG (SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.) · NXT (Nextpower Inc.) · ENPH (Enphase Energy, Inc.)