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First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Solar

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $189.38. At $196.81 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $189.38 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5.

First Solar is the largest thin film (CdTe) solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere with over 93 GW sold worldwide and manufacturing in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India. Revenue is primarily from module sales to solar project developers, utilities, and... Read more

$196.81+16.5% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 9 Solar
Entry $189.38(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $172.73Target $220.56(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1Setup A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$245.07+24.5%29 analysts
$220.56our TP
$196.81price
$245.07mean
$150
$313

Wait for pullback to $189.38. At $196.81 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $189.38 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -8.7%), Material insider selling (56 sells, 0.98% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)7.9
Mkt Cap$20.5B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn29.3%
ROE17.4%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta1.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts49

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.55bearish
IV86%elevated
Max Pain$275+39.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass
    10-K Item 1A: 'key raw materials and components, in particular CdTe, tellurium, products containing tellurium, and substrate glass...are either single-sourced or sourced from a limited number of suppliers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 1.02MEDIUM
    On February 13, 2026, First Solar terminated its prior credit arrangement upon entering a new $1.5B unsecured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase as administrative agent, maturing in 5 years.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.1
Erm
4.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 0 days
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $185.13Resistance $211.00

Price Targets

$173
$189
$221
A.Upside+12.1%
A.R:R1.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSLR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $189.38. At $196.81 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $189.38 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $220.56 (+12.1%), stop $172.73 (−13.9%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSLR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $220.56 (+16.5% upside). Target $220.56 (+12.1%), stop $172.73 (−13.9%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $172.73.

What are the risks of investing in FSLR?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -8.7%), Material insider selling (56 sells, 0.98% of cap).

Is FSLR overvalued or undervalued?

First Solar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FSLR?

49 analysts cover FSLR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $245.

What does First Solar, Inc. do?First Solar is the largest thin film (CdTe) solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere with over 93 GW sold...

First Solar is the largest thin film (CdTe) solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere with over 93 GW sold worldwide and manufacturing in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India. Revenue is primarily from module sales to solar project developers, utilities, and independent power producers; the company benefits from U.S. IRA Section 45X manufacturing credits.

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