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FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.Hold6.2·$263.28-3.74%
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First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Solar

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $263.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.9): -1.5.

First Solar manufactures cadmium telluride thin film PV solar modules, with production facilities in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India; the United States accounted for 96% of 2025 net sales. Revenue comes from selling modules to project developers, utilities, and... Read more

$263.28+19.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 9 Solar
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.91%
Stop $245.85Target $314.53(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$245.77-6.7%26 analysts
$314.53our TP
$263.28price
$245.77mean
$150
$330

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $263.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.9): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About First Solar, Inc.

About First Solar, Inc.

The United States represented 96% of First Solar's 2025 net sales. The company has sold over 93 gigawatts of modules worldwide since inception, manufacturing CdTe thin film modules at facilities in Ohio, Alabama, and Louisiana, with a sixth U.S. plant expected to commence in the second half of 2026. The Inflation Reduction Act's Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit, available from 2023 through 2032, has supported domestic module economics.

First Solar earns revenue exclusively from module sales—designing, manufacturing, and selling CdTe thin film panels to project developers, utilities, independent power producers, and commercial and industrial buyers. The company's manufacturing process is a fully integrated, continuous flow operation that takes raw glass through deposition, cell definition, and assembly stages within hours, eliminating the multi-factory batch processing of crystalline silicon competitors. Raw material dependencies include cadmium telluride, tellurium, and substrate glass, some of which are single-sourced or sourced from a limited number of suppliers—a risk the 10-K explicitly acknowledges. Series 7 modules averaged 532 watts at end of 2025 versus 464 watts for Series 6 Plus, with the larger 4-by-7-foot form factor reducing installation time. First Solar does not source from Chinese crystalline silicon supply chains, a structural differentiator in U.S. markets where foreign-entity-related restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act may limit competitors' access to tax credit eligibility.

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First Solar's financial model is materially subject to federal tax policy. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in July 2025 introduced an accelerated termination framework for the clean electricity investment tax credit under Section 48E and the production tax credit under Section 45Y, requiring utility-scale solar projects to begin construction by early July 2026 to remain eligible. This compressed timeline could weigh on developer demand in the post-deadline period. Additionally, the Section 45X manufacturing credit—First Solar's primary direct benefit—phases down starting in 2030 and expires in 2032, creating a medium-term headwind if domestic manufacturing demand does not scale sufficiently before that window closes.

See also: Technology · Solar

From First Solar, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.73)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.9): -1.5
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.7
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$29.4B
EV/EBITDA12.1
Profit Mgn30.7%
ROE18.4%
Rev Growth23.6%
Beta1.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts47

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.65bearish
IV90%elevated
Max Pain$460+74.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $221.62Resistance $320.95

Price Targets

$246
$315
A.Upside+19.5%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSLR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $263.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.9): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $314.53 (+19.5%), stop $245.85 (−7.1%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSLR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $314.53 (+19.0% upside). Target $314.53 (+19.5%), stop $245.85 (−7.1%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $245.85.

What are the risks of investing in FSLR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.9): -1.5; Elevated risk factors.

Is FSLR overvalued or undervalued?

First Solar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FSLR?

47 analysts cover FSLR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $246.

What does First Solar, Inc. do?First Solar manufactures cadmium telluride thin film PV solar modules, with production facilities in the U.S.,...

First Solar manufactures cadmium telluride thin film PV solar modules, with production facilities in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India; the United States accounted for 96% of 2025 net sales. Revenue comes from selling modules to project developers, utilities, and independent power producers, supported by over $2 billion in cumulative R&D investment over 20 years.

Related stocks: RUN (Sunrun Inc.) · SEDG (SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.) · NXT (Nextpower Inc.) · ENPH (Enphase Energy, Inc.)
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