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SHLSShoals Technologies Group, Inc.Sell5.5·$10.69+7.42%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Shoals Technologies is a solar electrical balance-of-systems company with extraordinary revenue growth of 75% year-over-year but a deeply negative free cash flow conversion of -206% relative to net income, quality below minimum thresholds, and a put-to-call ratio of 4.81 signaling extreme institutional bearishness.

Thesis pillars

  • Extraordinary Revenue Growth SolarStable
  • Mixed Earnings At Analyst TargetStable
  • Negative Fcf Quality Below ThresholdStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Solar

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.69: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.

Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. provides electrical balance of system (EBOS) solutions and components in the United States and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells various products used by the solar and battery storage industries, including solar big... Read more

$10.69+15.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#3 of 9 Solar
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-4.14%
Stop $9.84Target $12.24(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$10.63-0.5%19 analysts
$12.24our TP
$10.69price
$10.63mean
$7
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.69: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee manufacturing facilities
Target reached (-9.6% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.8
P/E (Fwd)19.8
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA20.1
Profit Mgn6.3%
ROE5.8%
Rev Growth74.9%
Beta1.90
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV118%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of vendors and suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our product development, manufacturing and testing processes are complex, involve a number of precise steps from design to production, and require significant technological and production process expertise, and therefore we depend on a limited number of vendors and suppliers.'
  • HIGHGeographicTennessee manufacturing facilities
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our products are primarily manufactured and shipped from our production facilities in Tennessee, and any damage or disruption at these facilities may harm our business.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
1.9
Gross Margin
2.7
Net Margin
3.1
Operating Margin
3.3
Roa
3.6
Moat
5.6
Current Ratio
6.5
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -206% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
8.9
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.70Resistance $12.49

Price Targets

$10
$12
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHLS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.69: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $9.84. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SHLS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.24 (+15.7% upside). Prior stop was $9.84. Stop-loss: $9.84.

What are the risks of investing in SHLS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee manufacturing facilities; Target reached (-9.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is SHLS overvalued or undervalued?

Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.8 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHLS?

25 analysts cover SHLS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. do?Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. provides electrical balance of system (EBOS) solutions and components in the United...

Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. provides electrical balance of system (EBOS) solutions and components in the United States and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells various products used by the solar and battery storage industries, including solar big lead assembly (BLA) solutions; homeruns, interconnection, and extension solutions; combiners and re-combiners; load break disconnects and transition solutions; wireless performance monitoring; and battery energy storage solutions (BESS). It also offers original equipment manufacturer (OEM) components; and technical support services during installation and the transition to operations and maintenance. The company sells its products to engineering, procurement, and construction firms that build solar energy projects; utilities; solar developers, independent power producers; solar module manufacturers; and charge point operators. Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Portland, Tennessee.

Related stocks: RUN (Sunrun Inc.) · SEDG (SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.) · JKS (JinkoSolar Holding Company Limi) · ARRY (Array Technologies, Inc.) · ENPH (Enphase Energy, Inc.)
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