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Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $407.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Rockwell Automation provides industrial automation and digital transformation solutions in 100+ countries through three segments: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. It serves discrete (automotive, semiconductor), hybrid (food/beverage, life... Read more

$407.00+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#28 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
Stop $387.60Target $412.61(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$421.57+3.6%25 analysts
$412.61our TP
$407.00price
$421.57mean
$248
$495

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $407.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.7
P/E (Fwd)29.1
Mkt Cap$45.0B
EV/EBITDA26.0
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE23.7%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta1.54
Dividend1.38%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.48bullish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$200-50.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerdistributors in North America
    10-K Item 1A: 'In North America, a large percentage of our sales are through distributors. In certain other countries, the majority of our sales are also through a limited number of distributors'
  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We also maintain several single-source supplier relationships because either alternative sources are not available'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed David A. Zapico as director effective April 16, 2026, term expiring at the 2027 Annual Meeting. Appointed to Compensation and Talent Management and Board Composition Committees.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved the 2026 Long-Term Incentives Plan at the Feb 10, 2026 annual meeting, authorizing 10.6M shares for equity grants to employees and directors. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.8
Growth Rank
6.1
Quality Rank
6.7
Superior ROE vs peers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.7
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward Pe
4.2
Peg Ratio
4.3
Ps
6.7
Forward P/E: 29.1xPEG: 2.19
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $356.79Resistance $421.03

Price Targets

$388
$413
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.9% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $407.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $387.60. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ROK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $412.61 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $387.60. Stop-loss: $387.60.

What are the risks of investing in ROK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Expensive valuation.

Is ROK overvalued or undervalued?

Rockwell Automation, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.7 (forward 29.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ROK?

34 analysts cover ROK with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $422.

What does Rockwell Automation, Inc. do?Rockwell Automation provides industrial automation and digital transformation solutions in 100+ countries through three...

Rockwell Automation provides industrial automation and digital transformation solutions in 100+ countries through three segments: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. It serves discrete (automotive, semiconductor), hybrid (food/beverage, life sciences), and process (energy, chemicals) end markets globally.

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