Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 8.4 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.77
- ▸Attractively valued
ROCK · Why this verdict
Why Gibraltar Industries (ROCK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 45% year-over-year and Gibraltar ranks as a growth leader among building products peers, benefiting from infrastructure and residential construction tailwinds that are driving demand for its solar, agtech, and infrastructure products. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for at least the next two quarters as solar energy installation volumes remain elevated and infrastructure product backlogs convert to revenue. | →Stable |
| CounterBuilding products revenue growth of 45% in any single year almost always includes a significant acquisition component or a one-time demand surge; sustaining that trajectory organically requires continuously winning new construction markets. | ||
A quality score of 2.9 out of 10 — below the 4.0 minimum threshold — combined with earnings misses in 2 of the last 4 quarters indicates that rapid revenue growth is not being translated into consistent profitability or free cash flow generation. Quality breakdown | Quality score improves to above 4.5 within 12 months as gross margin expansion from operating leverage converts revenue growth into earnings per share growth above consensus expectations. | →Stable |
| CounterAcquisitive growth companies typically show depressed quality metrics during integration periods; the low quality score may reflect accounting treatment of acquired assets rather than ongoing operational underperformance. | ||
The analyst consensus price target implies 70% upside from the current price of $40.48 to $58.37, which is one of the widest analyst-to-price gaps in the industrial sector — suggesting either the stock is deeply undervalued or that analysts have not yet updated targets to reflect the deteriorating quality metrics. Sentiment breakdown | Price closes more than 30% of the gap toward the $58 target within 12 months as earnings recover and the market re-rates on the growth trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterWide gaps between current price and analyst targets in small-cap industrials often reflect stale analyst models; the 70% upside may represent outdated targets set before recent earnings misses rather than a genuine valuation opportunity. | ||
Despite improving MACD and rising on-balance volume, the stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -7.1% over 30 days and sits near its 52-week low, indicating the technical damage is severe and requires a fundamental catalyst to trigger reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and sustains above it for at least 45 consecutive days, confirming the recovery pattern is real rather than a temporary bounce. | →Stable |
| CounterBuilding products stocks near 52-week lows with improving MACD are classic mean-reversion setups; the technical weakness combined with a wide analyst upside gap could compress sharply on any positive sector catalyst. | ||
Revenue grew 45% year-over-year and Gibraltar ranks as a growth leader among building products peers, benefiting from infrastructure and residential construction tailwinds that are driving demand for its solar, agtech, and infrastructure products.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for at least the next two quarters as solar energy installation volumes remain elevated and infrastructure product backlogs convert to revenue.
CounterBuilding products revenue growth of 45% in any single year almost always includes a significant acquisition component or a one-time demand surge; sustaining that trajectory organically requires continuously winning new construction markets.
A quality score of 2.9 out of 10 — below the 4.0 minimum threshold — combined with earnings misses in 2 of the last 4 quarters indicates that rapid revenue growth is not being translated into consistent profitability or free cash flow generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score improves to above 4.5 within 12 months as gross margin expansion from operating leverage converts revenue growth into earnings per share growth above consensus expectations.
CounterAcquisitive growth companies typically show depressed quality metrics during integration periods; the low quality score may reflect accounting treatment of acquired assets rather than ongoing operational underperformance.
The analyst consensus price target implies 70% upside from the current price of $40.48 to $58.37, which is one of the widest analyst-to-price gaps in the industrial sector — suggesting either the stock is deeply undervalued or that analysts have not yet updated targets to reflect the deteriorating quality metrics.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes more than 30% of the gap toward the $58 target within 12 months as earnings recover and the market re-rates on the growth trajectory.
CounterWide gaps between current price and analyst targets in small-cap industrials often reflect stale analyst models; the 70% upside may represent outdated targets set before recent earnings misses rather than a genuine valuation opportunity.
Despite improving MACD and rising on-balance volume, the stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -7.1% over 30 days and sits near its 52-week low, indicating the technical damage is severe and requires a fundamental catalyst to trigger reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and sustains above it for at least 45 consecutive days, confirming the recovery pattern is real rather than a temporary bounce.
CounterBuilding products stocks near 52-week lows with improving MACD are classic mean-reversion setups; the technical weakness combined with a wide analyst upside gap could compress sharply on any positive sector catalyst.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Gibraltar Industries is a building products company with 45% year-over-year revenue growth and 70% analyst upside to price targets, but a quality score well below the minimum acceptable threshold and two consecutive earnings misses indicate the rapid growth is not translating into durable business quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 45% YoY
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $823,334 (0.063% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 1.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.25
- ▸High IV: 85%
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.19
Upside
+32.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.0, Quality at 2.9, and Catalyst at 3.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P145 Pct Revenue Growth Industry Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in any reported quarter, indicating the construction tailwind is fading faster than the acquisition-driven baseline allows.
- P2Quality Below Floor Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming that quality deficiencies are structural rather than cyclical.
- P370 Pct Analyst Upside Valuation Gap
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised below $45, more than 20% below the current $58.37 target, indicating the wide upside gap is a reflection of stale overoptimistic estimates.
- P4Technical Recovery Below 200 Day Ma
Trip ifPrice drops below $35, more than 13% below the current $40.48, confirming the downtrend is accelerating rather than stabilizing near the 52-week low.